FlySurfer said...
I tell you what I want... I don't want to extrapolate or use my imagination to come up with an excuse for an organization to ram something up my a$$, I want an equation.
eg: CO2 @ ppm = + degrees C.
or
CO2 @ % of atm = + degrees C.
Something demonstrable and replicable.
If you can do that, I can demonstrate that CO2 has about as much effect on temperature as dust has on the speed of a F1 car.
Challenge accepted:
Current levels of CO2 in atmosphere is 391ppm : source
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth's_atmosphere
Increase of CO2 per year is about 2ppm : source
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth's_atmosphere
CO2 is responsible for about 3.618% of Global Greenhouse effect : source
www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html (table 3)
Amount of sunlight hitting Earth is 240 Watts/m^2
(source : anywhere on the web)
The current greenhouse effect doubles this as radiation is absorbed by the greenhouse layer and re-emitted (of which 50% back to earth with each 'reflection')
source :
www.lpl.arizona.edu/~showman/greenhouse.htmlTotal energy hitting the Earth is about 480Watts/m^2
The simple equation for working out the temperature of a blackbody in equilibrium with a certain amount of heat loss is :
F = &sigma T^4
where F is heat flux
&sigma is the Stephen Boltsman constant (5.67*10^-8)
T is the temperature
Currently this would calculate the temperature as :
T = (F / &sigma) ^ .25
T = (480 / 5.67*10^-8) ^ .25
T = 302.9 Kelvin (which is about 29.75 centigrade)
After 20 years the concentraion of CO2 in the atmosphere will increase by 20 *2ppm = 40ppm (as above),
This is an increase of about 10%
So now the heat flux is increased by 480 * 10% * 3.618% = 1.411
So the total heat flux is 481.411
The new temperature (after achieving equilibrium) would be
T = (F / &sigma) ^ .25
T = (481.411 / 5.67*10^-8) ^ .25
T = 303.2 Kelvin (which is about 30.05 centigrade)
So even this simple model says an increase of .3 degrees after 20 years
After 50 years this becomes an increase of
T = (F / &sigma) ^ .25
T = (484.35 / 5.67*10^-8) ^ .25
T = 303.6 Kelvin (which is about 31 centigrade)
So my very simple model predicts an increase of .7 centigrade after 50 years.
This is assuming that we stay at the current level of CO2 emissions (which is not happening)
This also ignores the other greenhouse gasses, feedback systems, the Earth's albedo, cloud cover etc. etc.
obviously a real calculation would include more factors, I would imagine the most important being that any increase in temp will increase the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, which is another greenhouse gas
This is a simple demonstration of
more CO2 = higher temperature.
Now I'm waiting for your dust / Formula 1 car calculation...