FlySurfer said...
Chris 249: reading your post is quite depressing. You read like so many of our generation unwilling to rationally question the information they receive.
The TV said the scientific community said the world is getting warmer, so it is.
And those who question the information are simply viewed as flat Earther's.
We've gone through this a 100 times on this forum. Those who are paid to say it's getting hotter say it's getting hotter.
Those who aren't paid to say it, say "Hey that doesn't make sense we need to expand the research. What's the Sun doing? What's happening inside the Earth? Lets build some detailed models and start playing with gas ratios. Why is the Earth cooling?"
I find it depressing that so many people assume that they know more about everything than everyone else - even those people who have spent years learning about a specialised field.
I specifically noted "Yes, the consensus is not always right" so I am quite willing to admit that it can be wrong. The fact that you are implying I get my knowledge from the TV (something I barely ever watch) could be a minor bit of evidence to show that you jump to conclusions yourself.
I am very willing to rationally question the information I believe. Many of my family have scientific backgrounds and the basis of the entire scientific method is based on questioning, asking and testing. I am aware of the reservations some people have about it, such as Kuhn's paradigm shift theory, although I don't believe in that model. You could also look at Eddington's eclipse measurements, or Mendel's dodgy data as examples to show that science is not always clear.
However, to assume that a layperson can read a few articles and suddenly know more than those who have spent decades learning about the same field of science is illogical. Maybe it occurs (I'm not sure of examples, though) but the overwhelming majority of times, the scientists are right.
What do you do for a job? If I just read a bit and questioned stuff, would I know more about your job than you do? Do you know more about medicine than the average surgeon? Do you know more about windsurfing than the PWA sailors? Do you know more about how to drive a F1 car than Webber and his competitors? Do you know more about carbon layups than the guys who build masts?
If you do reckon a layman will know more than most surgeons, most of the PWA sailors, most F1 racers and most mastmakers know about their professions, then no real discussion is possible.
If you don't think Joe Average can read a bit and then start hacking into brains, winning Monaco, sailing Jaws or crafting carbon masts then why would you believe that you can read a bit and decide that the consensus of the climate scientists is wrong? Yes, as I clearly said in my earlier post the consensus may not always be right, but to what extent is it practical and reasonable to assume that laypeople can easily get it right when most scientists get it wrong?
There is a difference between an unquestioning belief in authority and the rational belief that most of the very intelligent people who work in a very complex field are likely to be correct.
For a living I take on the Federal Government, and occasionally for windsurfing I take on organisations like the NSW Government and Yachting Australia. I have no problems at all with questioning authority, but I also respect very smart people and believe that most of them are right when they do huge amounts of study in an area.
Where is your factual evidence for the last two paragraphs? My wife and I depend on science funding for a lot of our household income and her career so I'm quite well aware of the funding issue and how it works - get a few scientists out for drinks and you get a lot of chat about it - but whether it actually creates the climate consensus is a very different matter.
You could use the same argument against any major scientific field. If I recall correctly, Taffy Bowen largely made Australian astronomy a world force by smart politicking and getting good funding - does that mean you have to discount the consensus of astronomers? If you are going to disbelieve the climate consensus, why not disbelieve the consensus of modern astronomy?
Yes, questioning knowledge is useful, but saying "they are stupid, I know more than they do because I've spent a fraction as much time trying to learn about their field" seems rather useless.