Yara said.. Chris 249 said..
On the other hand, can anyone provide an instance where an old (say pre 1987) keel has fallen off? ISAF has a database of keel-loss incidents which shows the ridiculous toll that stupid modern high-aspect keels and poor design and building have taken - but I don't think there are any pre '87 boats that have lost keels without an enormous amount of other damage.
Obviously age is taking its toll, but when my keel bolts were pulled two years ago most of them were OK, and I know the cause of the issues with the ageing ones. Some older boats also had epoxy between the keel/floors/stub and the ballast, and in at least two cases I know of the epoxy alone was enough to hold the keel, rather to the dismay of the people trying to fit updated new keels.
That is re-assuring, but if you are sailing an old boat in heavy seas and your keel falls off, would you live to tell the tale?
I'd have a comparatively good chance, actually - a wooden 28'er with an inboard is going to float high and you are less likely to be trapped down below or find it impossible to climb onto the hull and/or dive into the cabin to get the EPIRB out than in many boats.
But I don't really see the point. There were hundreds of half tonners built in Oz and the only one to lose a keel (as far as I know) was Planet X in 1989. She had a MME keel which is a very, very different kettle of fish to most of the earlier ones. I think I've got a pretty good handle on keel losses and half tonner losses; for example I know of the loss of S'fida (Ebbutt 30, off Darwin circa 1981), Copper Top (Viking 30, off WA, same time frame) and Newspaper Taxi (Whiting circa 1995, 3 Peaks Race), so it's unlikely that there are thousands of old bits of lead hitting the primaeval ooze full fathom five without it becoming known.
Add in all the old Endeavours, Compasses, Hoods whatever (and skating delicately around a beloved long-keel production 25 footer that has actually had at least one incident of major structural issues around the keel area....) and the record indicates that there are thousands of old boats with keels sticking firmly on. Bolts can last, as they do in the Harbour Bridge.
The issue is not that there is absolutely zero chance of an old keel falling off - it's basically unknown, but there is a chance. This issue is that as MB says, the chances are so mind-blowingly low (with proper maintenance, or perhaps even without it) that it's not anywhere near the top of a list of things to be concerned about. There are other risks that are miles higher that we should rationally spend our time on instead.*
Apparently the US Coast Guard says that only 26% of sailors who died were actually sailing at the time. Most of them fell off moored or docked boats - so within reason, spending time being aware of THAT hazard and working out ways to address that danger would be much more important than worrying about ageing keel bolts on a typical '60s-early '80s yacht.
Personally I'd be much more worried if I was one of the scarily high number of people who cannot swim well and cannot get back aboard their own boat unaided, even at a mooring. I had to pull a guy in that situation out of the drink a year or two back - in a fast-ebbing tide he was clinging to the mooring of a boat downstream and starting to struggle.
Please note - I'm one of the (probably) fairly small proportion of people who has actually had pros inspect and (where necessary) replace the keelbolts, so I'm not ignoring the issue. It's just a very low priority.
* S'fida, for example, cracked the hull around the P bracket when a rope went around the prop, and sank slowly.... damn inboards. Taxi failed around the rudder and I think I know why - I was on the other end of the nut when a previous owner was doing a bodgy patch job on the upper bearing beam. Copper Top went down slowly due to unknown hull damage. The lesson seems to be that a watertight bulkhead aft, perhaps even a partial one, may have saved them which is why I'm part-way through that job.
