Who thinks we are heading for a recession?

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SandS
SandS
VIC
5904 posts
VIC, 5904 posts
5 Aug 2011 9:03pm

we are up SUP creek without a paddle
FormulaNova
FormulaNova
WA
15100 posts
WA, 15100 posts
5 Aug 2011 7:42pm
GalahOnTheBay said...

I don't understand why people have shares, the market now has nothing to do with raising capital any more, and everything to do with speculation, fear mongering, manipulation and profiteering.




I had this realisation last night while watching 'The Block', but obviously for property. I realised this when the contestants were asked to value other Melbourne properties, and their only basis seemed to be what they thought a similar place would sell for plus a few hundred grand for the sake of it.

It just dawned on me that people only want to buy a place, on the basis that they will be able to sell it for a windfall profit in a few years. Not to live in until they die of old age, but to sell to some other sucker in a few years.

When people realise that there is no sucker willing to pay more than the cost of the purchase, including the interest, stamp duty, and other costs, will they stop buying? If they stop buying, what happens to the price and value of these houses?

I hope people realise slowly, because if everyone realises it at the same time...


log man
log man
VIC
8289 posts
VIC, 8289 posts
5 Aug 2011 11:11pm
FormulaNova said...

GalahOnTheBay said...

I don't understand why people have shares, the market now has nothing to do with raising capital any more, and everything to do with speculation, fear mongering, manipulation and profiteering.




I had this realisation last night while watching 'The Block', but obviously for property. I realised this when the contestants were asked to value other Melbourne properties, and their only basis seemed to be what they thought a similar place would sell for plus a few hundred grand for the sake of it.

It just dawned on me that people only want to buy a place, on the basis that they will be able to sell it for a windfall profit in a few years. Not to live in until they die of old age, but to sell to some other sucker in a few years.

When people realise that there is no sucker willing to pay more than the cost of the purchase, including the interest, stamp duty, and other costs, will they stop buying? If they stop buying, what happens to the price and value of these houses?

I hope people realise slowly, because if everyone realises it at the same time...




Right on comrade, housing must be for people to live in not for speculation and "investment"
Bluedog76
Bluedog76
249 posts
249 posts
5 Aug 2011 11:01pm
Looks like investing in windsurfing gear is returning pretty good at the moment....relatively
evlPanda
evlPanda
NSW
9207 posts
NSW, 9207 posts
9 Aug 2011 2:44pm
The fact that all the money is running mostly towards the $US at the moment, and gold, indicates everything is still relatively normal underneath it all.

Westpac and Commbank have just reduced their fixed-term interest rates by about 0.5%. Safe as houses.
FilthyAmatuer
FilthyAmatuer
WA
877 posts
WA, 877 posts
9 Aug 2011 2:54pm
Its back above parity now. And this mornings 5% market drop is now a very small gain. Serious craziness going on.
adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
9 Aug 2011 7:15pm
GalahOnTheBay said...

Who wants to bet me 10% that today was a dead cat bounce?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

Meow!


I learnt that term yesterday.

Here's another word that summed up this morning : capitulation

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_capitulation

Here's the latest from Marc Faber: "Markets Crash!" "Brace for a Global 'Reboot' and a WAR" (CNBC Newsline)

Mark _australia
Mark _australia
WA
23649 posts
WA, 23649 posts
9 Aug 2011 9:48pm
Just how bad is the financial status of the USA?


The Recession has hit everybody..... I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail. Wives are having sex with their husbands because they can't afford batteries. CEO's are now playing miniature golf.
Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen..
A stripper was killed when her audience showered her with rolls of pennies while she danced.
I saw a Mormon polygamist with only one wife.
If the bank returns your check marked "Insufficient Funds," you call them and ask if they meant you or them.
McDonald's is selling the 1/4 ouncer.
Angelina Jolie adopted a child from America .
Parents in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and learned their children's names.
My cousin had an exorcism but couldn't afford to pay for it, and they re-possessed her!
A truckload of Americans was caught sneaking into Mexico.
A picture is now only worth 200 words.
When Bill and Hillary travel together, they now have to share a room.
The Treasure Island Casino in Las Vegas is now managed by Somali pirates. Congress says they are looking into this Bernard Madoff scandal. Oh Great! The guy who made $50 Billion disappear is being investigated by the people who made $1.5 Trillion disappear!
And, finally I was so depressed last night thinking about the economy, wars, jobs, my savings, Social Security, retirement funds, etc., I called the Suicide Hotline. I got a call center in Afghanistan , and when I told them I was suicidal, they got all excited, and asked if I could drive a truck.

mineral1
mineral1
WA
4564 posts
WA, 4564 posts
9 Aug 2011 11:18pm
Was-is this stock market plunge engineered by the movers and shakers or what????

Yesterday Rio bids to go full ownership in a major partner with a take over bid, some clever heads in that lot at Rio.
Makes one question the real stock market position.
BHP buys out all its contract mining divisions 6am this morning lock stock and barrel people numbers included, from its major contractor, and that's no chump change to get that lot. Some clever heads there in BHP also.
So whats the real position guys? whats real and whats not.?
People pulling out of stock market, and buying USA bonds. That's what caused the latest crash/problem in the first place, or so they would have us believe.
desertyank
desertyank
1264 posts
1264 posts
9 Aug 2011 11:57pm
Mark _australia said...

Just how bad is the financial status of the USA?


The Recession has hit everybody..... I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail. Wives are having sex with their husbands because they can't afford batteries. CEO's are now playing miniature golf.
Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen..
A stripper was killed when her audience showered her with rolls of pennies while she danced.
I saw a Mormon polygamist with only one wife.
If the bank returns your check marked "Insufficient Funds," you call them and ask if they meant you or them.
McDonald's is selling the 1/4 ouncer.
Angelina Jolie adopted a child from America .
Parents in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and learned their children's names.
My cousin had an exorcism but couldn't afford to pay for it, and they re-possessed her!
A truckload of Americans was caught sneaking into Mexico.
A picture is now only worth 200 words.
When Bill and Hillary travel together, they now have to share a room.
The Treasure Island Casino in Las Vegas is now managed by Somali pirates. Congress says they are looking into this Bernard Madoff scandal. Oh Great! The guy who made $50 Billion disappear is being investigated by the people who made $1.5 Trillion disappear!
And, finally I was so depressed last night thinking about the economy, wars, jobs, my savings, Social Security, retirement funds, etc., I called the Suicide Hotline. I got a call center in Afghanistan , and when I told them I was suicidal, they got all excited, and asked if I could drive a truck.




wait; what was that number?[}:)]
Little Jon
Little Jon
NSW
2115 posts
NSW, 2115 posts
10 Aug 2011 1:48pm
Pugwash said...

FlySurfer said...

I'm sitting sweet :)


I'm tweeting sheet


I'm sh#ting tweets
Hamsta
Hamsta
505 posts
505 posts
10 Aug 2011 3:55pm
mineral1 said...

Was-is this stock market plunge engineered by the movers and shakers or what????

Yesterday Rio bids to go full ownership in a major partner with a take over bid, some clever heads in that lot at Rio.
Makes one question the real stock market position.
BHP buys out all its contract mining divisions 6am this morning lock stock and barrel people numbers included, from its major contractor, and that's no chump change to get that lot. Some clever heads there in BHP also.
So whats the real position guys? whats real and whats not.?
People pulling out of stock market, and buying USA bonds. That's what caused the latest crash/problem in the first place, or so they would have us believe.


That is a good question? Some days I think that perhaps the stock market is simply a giant game that can be deliberately influenced/manipulated. By whom, I am not sure, but yesterday was definately one of those days that has left me thinking that it would have been a great day to buy whilst prices temporarily fell and a bit of panic set in. Buy cheap, sell high? Obviously more to consider, but when net value takes a hit like it did, seems a bit of a no brainer?
Poida
Poida
WA
1922 posts
WA, 1922 posts
10 Aug 2011 4:10pm
its a good time to buy the oversold stocks
GalahOnTheBay
GalahOnTheBay
NSW
4188 posts
NSW, 4188 posts
10 Aug 2011 6:48pm
mineral1 said...

Makes one question the real stock market position.


Got it in 1

Can anyone explain the fundamentals why the markets are almost 10% better than they were 3 days ago? I thought not...
SandS
SandS
VIC
5904 posts
VIC, 5904 posts
10 Aug 2011 6:57pm
GalahOnTheBay said...

mineral1 said...

Makes one question the real stock market position.


Got it in 1

Can anyone explain the fundamentals why the markets are almost 10% better than they were 3 days ago? I thought not...


havent read all this thread , but .

one possible answer to your Q may be the fact that the US have dropped the interest rate to 0 for two years.

So lots are puting money back into the stock market instead of banks.
mineral1
mineral1
WA
4564 posts
WA, 4564 posts
10 Aug 2011 5:03pm
SandS said...

GalahOnTheBay said...

mineral1 said...

Makes one question the real stock market position.


Got it in 1

Can anyone explain the fundamentals why the markets are almost 10% better than they were 3 days ago? I thought not...


havent read all this thread , but .

one possible answer to your Q may be the fact that the US have dropped the interest rate to 0 for two years.

So lots are puting money back into the stock market instead of banks.


No they havent done that, they pulled out of the stock market and went into US Bonds, thats what drove down the market, and to top it off, the US Government was just down graded in its credit rateing, so one wonders why anybody would buy bonds. Not logical, its all big buggerup
SandS
SandS
VIC
5904 posts
VIC, 5904 posts
10 Aug 2011 7:12pm
mineral1 said...

SandS said...

GalahOnTheBay said...

mineral1 said...

Makes one question the real stock market position.


Got it in 1

Can anyone explain the fundamentals why the markets are almost 10% better than they were 3 days ago? I thought not...


havent read all this thread , but .

one possible answer to your Q may be the fact that the US have dropped the interest rate to 0 for two years.

So lots are puting money back into the stock market instead of banks.


No they havent done that, they pulled out of the stock market and went into US Bonds, thats what drove down the market, and to top it off, the US Government was just down graded in its credit rateing, so one wonders why anybody would buy bonds. Not logical, its all big buggerup


the news today said that they have said lock it in edddy at 0 for two years.

all moneys are going back to the stock market.
FlySurfer
FlySurfer
NSW
4460 posts
NSW, 4460 posts
10 Aug 2011 7:21pm
SandS said...
the news today said that they have said lock it in edddy at 0 for two years.

all moneys are going back to the stock market.


Make believe moneys, you mean... how many 0's would you like?
Elroy Jetson
Elroy Jetson
WA
706 posts
WA, 706 posts
7 Sep 2011 3:12pm
That's a surprise. The economy grew by 1.2 per cent in the June quarter.

It appears many of us have convinced ourselves that we are doing it tough when this may not be the reality.


www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-07/household-spending-report-released/2875106


Ben Phillips, a principal research fellow at the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, says people are spending more on luxuries.

"The simple reality seems to be that people are actually doing really quite well," he said.
log man
log man
VIC
8289 posts
VIC, 8289 posts
7 Sep 2011 6:45pm
Bloody government.....Low unemployment, low debt, good growth..........." this is the worst government since federation": Sophie Mirrabella, Q and A
ockanui
ockanui
VIC
1321 posts
VIC, 1321 posts
7 Sep 2011 6:55pm
compared to other countries we are seemingly doing just fine, with out all the hurley burley of the great political divide, I wonder how well we would be doing if another party was in government at this point? or indeed another leader of the governing party, my guess is diddlysqaut.
Pugwash
Pugwash
WA
7733 posts
WA, 7733 posts
7 Sep 2011 6:03pm
YAY... Some good news. I'm going shoppin'...

log man said...

...Sophie Mirrabella, Q and A


What a panel - Sophie Mirrabella, Paul Howes , what an arrogant dick. Please shut up, and let people speak.

Clive Palmer, the refugee champion
GalahOnTheBay
GalahOnTheBay
NSW
4188 posts
NSW, 4188 posts
7 Sep 2011 9:37pm
SandS said...

the news today said that they have said lock it in edddy at 0 for two years.
all moneys are going back to the stock market.


That's not what happened, that's just how it was spun in the media. Besides the interest rates there have been as good as zero for a while anyway.

0% interest rates work wonders though, just have a look at Japan's economy...



Some interesting reading:

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/article_air.asp?a=AV&ai=14281
wodgina6722
wodgina6722
229 posts
229 posts
7 Sep 2011 7:56pm
We need a good ol' war or false flag.

I can see the Aussie dollar devalueing hugely soon, low interest rates. **** is hitting then fan faster than I expected. I watched inside job the other day as recommended by this forum and well, that is nothing compared to what we are about to see.

log man
log man
VIC
8289 posts
VIC, 8289 posts
8 Sep 2011 12:35am
somehow the ground rules of politics has just shifted in a weird, alternate reality kind of way. For the last 20 or more years the political team that could point to the economic scoreboard and say "read it and weep, suckers" was the team that ruled politics in Australia. What the **** happened? Did the teams change jumpers at half time? The labour government is running an economy that ,apart from the floods and the bush fires would be travelling at a world leading growth rate. but NOOOOOOO, no-one ,least of all the government seems vaguely interested. Even Gillard and Swan don't seem to think the economy is important. The Labour party seems to think that the way to win over the electorate is to put up a refugee policy that is more "liberal" party than the Liberals. Then I see Joe Hockey on the telly, doing his best rendition of faux outrage saying the conservatives want to "stop the boats" because it's unsafe for the refugees to travel long distances in ****ty boats......UNSAFE?!... FFS. Why are they all doing this ****........are they just to messing with my brain?
adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
7 Sep 2011 10:36pm
Elroy Jetson said...

That's a surprise. The economy grew by 1.2 per cent in the June quarter.

It appears many of us have convinced ourselves that we are doing it tough when this may not be the reality.


www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-07/household-spending-report-released/2875106


Ben Phillips, a principal research fellow at the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, says people are spending more on luxuries.

"The simple reality seems to be that people are actually doing really quite well," he said.



Time to buy with both hands now that everything is peachy in Australia and dirt cheap.

I was surprised by the GDP today. Australia is doing well compared to Europe and the USA, Japan. I guess when the world depression hits us, unfortunately, there isn't much we can do about it.

Here's some light reading: www.cnbc.com/id/44404184

petermac33
petermac33
WA
6415 posts
WA, 6415 posts
7 Sep 2011 11:17pm
wodgina6722 said...

We need a good ol' war or false flag.

I can see the Aussie dollar devalueing hugely soon, low interest rates. **** is hitting then fan faster than I expected. I watched inside job the other day as recommended by this forum and well, that is nothing compared to what we are about to see.




if we do have a financial collapse, the UK with it's diverse racial makeup could lead to even greater problems.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2032956/John-Cleese-London-longer-English-city-thats-got-2012-Olympics.html



Elroy Jetson
Elroy Jetson
WA
706 posts
WA, 706 posts
7 Sep 2011 11:34pm
log man said...

somehow the ground rules of politics has just shifted in a weird, alternate reality kind of way.


It's odd alright. I think it could be the minority government. To bolster support there is a need to discuss and debate a proposal in front of the media daily.

The public are over exposed to federal politics and interpret these daily political dramas as, "The current Government can't get their act together."

With the exception of Kevin Rudd, previous Prime Minister's had breaks from being front and centre in the media. At times they may not have appeared on TV or radio for a week or 2 (or longer).


adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
7 Sep 2011 11:57pm
Elroy Jetson said...

log man said...

somehow the ground rules of politics has just shifted in a weird, alternate reality kind of way.


It's odd alright. I think it could be the minority government. To bolster support there is a need to discuss and debate a proposal in front of the media daily.

The public are over exposed to federal politics and interpret these daily political dramas as, "The current Government can't get their act together."

With the exception of Kevin Rudd, previous Prime Minister's had breaks from being front and centre in the media. At times they may not have appeared on TV or radio for a week or 2 (or longer).



It's like this govt has absolutely no idea. Almost everything they do turns to crap. They seem so focused on media reaction - it's pathetic. They don't inspire any confidence or direction. People have stopped listening to them - I know I don't listen anymore. The unfortunate thing is, that when this govt is eventually removed from office they will put the labor party into the wilderness for decades.
adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
22 Sep 2011 3:45pm
nebbian said...

BHP shares are 40% higher than they were two years ago. This is a pretty good sign to me that things are on the improve


How are your Bloody Huge Profit shares looking today?

Should have sold them back in June. They are going to get lower - much lower before they get back to where they were in June. The recession has just kicked down a gear.

I think the property bubble will be first to burst in Australia - obviously real estate agents will keep ramping it up for a while.

If you have young children - take them to parks and stuff - those memories are priceless.

In maybe 5 -10 years time there will be another world war, don't be surprised if we all have to speak Chinese and BHP has been renamed to 汉字/漢
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