It's worth noting here that we create our own reality.

If we look for bad things, then in our world they will happen.

If we seek out the positive, the enjoyable, the wonderful, then our world will be filled with them.
By writing them down they get reinforced in our heads every time we read them.


The seabreeze forum is a microcosm, a universe, a shared experience...

I would like it to be filled with the smell of freshly cut grass

nebbian said...

It's worth noting here that we create our own reality.

If we look for bad things, then in our world they will happen.

If we seek out the positive, the enjoyable, the wonderful, then our world will be filled with them.
By writing them down they get reinforced in our heads every time we read them.


The seabreeze forum is a microcosm, a universe, a shared experience...

I would like it to be filled with the smell of freshly cut grass

I subscribe to your belief, but at the same time I have to be guided by logic and the inescapable reality with its laws that I live in.

I believe if you wish heads on 100 x coin flip and visualize it, you may get 55 heads.
It's easier to influence people because we seem to share some scientifically undefined soul space.

Man that grass sure smells good, where's my bong!?

petermac33 said...

on Glen Beck programme few weeks back he had Jim Rogers on for an hour talking about the coming great depression.

both agreed,Glen said another 5 months to start really biting.

time to stock up on food,tins can last years,so can dried food.

some aboriginals can survive off the land,not many others.

we take food in supermarkets as guaranteed to always be there,supermarkets could be cleaned out in hours if what predicted arrives.

heard other week of house that was bought in Applecross for $8m at peak was recently valued at $4.6m.

a few more years,certainly within the next 5/10 year period, they might get half a
million if lucky.

can easily see silver hitting $150 an ounce.

www.henrymakow.com/why_are_lessons_of_1998_mini-c.html

dont panic

there is always steak for a bbq
price of beef gotta be going down.
beer will be cheaper also
its all good. even with a carbon tax
and it will blow its box off this summer,

Unfortunately, the Labs are hitting us from every direction with a new tax just about every month. And some taxes and other ideas they test through the media for popular appeal. This = uncertainty. Uncertainty = bad.

Debt is bad not uncertainty

FormulaNova said...

Pugwash said...

The meddling, bungling, uncertainty is going to exacerbate the "two-speed" economy.

What does that mean?

A real answer

Not sure which part you mean, so I will have a crack at all!

Bungling. So many examples. Most recent is the cattle saga. Over-managed, late-stage inappropriate reaction and no strategic thinking.

Bungled. Carbon tax. Whether there is mandate or not.

This one really has me puzzled. Why would you consider introducing a tax, going through all the planning and legislative processes, lots of time, lots of money, and then simply say this is a step along the way to an Emissions Trading Scheme.

I can only imagine someone inside the Labs has figured out the cost-benefit... The tax is going to cost X to introduce. It will raise Y for the Federal Labs budget (where Y>X) and all is good. We'll worry about the cost of setting up an ETS when that comes in 18 to 24 months. Win, win. Tax is introduced. Budget looks a little better. But, there is a loser, the taxpayer. The taxpayer is paying for the introduction of a carbon tax and an ETS, one after the other. Pure waste.

Uncertainty comes from testing crap policy by media. The carbon tax is the perfect example. Announce a tax, don't tell anyone how it is going to work, ask for support.

Two-speed economy is a Labs term. Am guessing you know that one. By exacerbate, I am saying that the areas that will be most impacted by uncertainty are those that are already struggling. Mining will be mining. It goes in cycles.

Back to the original question, I think a recession is likely as the resources sector battles to support the economy almost by itself.

FlySurfer said...

nebbian said...

It's worth noting here that we create our own reality.

If we look for bad things, then in our world they will happen.

If we seek out the positive, the enjoyable, the wonderful, then our world will be filled with them.
By writing them down they get reinforced in our heads every time we read them.


The seabreeze forum is a microcosm, a universe, a shared experience...

I would like it to be filled with the smell of freshly cut grass

I subscribe to your belief, but at the same time I have to be guided by logic and the inescapable reality with its laws that I live in.

I believe if you wish heads on 100 x coin flip and visualize it, you may get 55 heads.
It's easier to influence people because we seem to share some scientifically undefined soul space.

Man that grass sure smells good, where's my bong!?

you better bring it and a party cone over to perth, they have to smoke 2 tonnes of kronic before they make it illegal tonight. going to be alot of stoned people in perth tonight

A friend told me they put on 5 delivery drivers in one shop that sells kronic. they will be getting the arse today. is that the meddling you were talking about pugsy?

Pugwash said...

FormulaNova said...

Pugwash said...

The meddling, bungling, uncertainty is going to exacerbate the "two-speed" economy.

What does that mean?

A real answer

<snip>

Back to the original question, I think a recession is likely as the resources sector battles to support the economy almost by itself.

I guess I didn't understand how any bungling or uncertainty would make a two speed economy worse. A two-speed economy either exists or it doesn't. You can't make it worse or better.

If you are talking about making the differences in a two-speed economy worse or more marked, maybe, but I am not sure you can 'exacerbate' a 'two-speed economy'.

What I guess I need the education in is how meddling, bungling, and uncertainty can do much of anything, other than make Alan Jones happy.

If you look at the world stage and our currency value, I would argue the rest of the world figures Australia is a pretty steady, certain place. So much so, that it is hurting our exports as they are too expensive.

I do think the current government seems more worried about what the press thinks instead of thinking slowly and carefully about what they do need to do.

I also think that it is very easy to attribute emotional words to something without investigating whether they are deserved. Sadly the public latch on to these without really looking at the facts.

I really really think this 'bungling' term is a media invention when attributed to politics. When have you ever seen a cohesive well structured government that gets everything right? There is always something somewhere in any government that goes wrong.

Maybe the spending immediately after the GFC was bungling? They spent heaps of money for nothing. Wasted! Nothing gained! Spending like it is going out of style! Wasting our hard-earned money! Spending our future! Giving money to dole bludgers! Running the country into debt!

The must have Bungled it!

(p.s. sorry for the essay!)

(p.p.s - I agree with Nebbian I think, in that telling everyone that there is a recession happening itself creates a recession, so I am going back to my ignorant ways before I read this thread )

^^^^ I almost picked up a smoke a second ago.

I can't believe how angry I've become since I stopped.

Hey Formula - can you please delete that?

FormulaNova said...

Let's go sail...

Pugwash said...

scwheet as, that'd be awesome!

"Two-speed" is not a good term. It is not two speeds as in first and second gear on my Malvern Star Dragster (I don't really have a Dragster, one day maybe), but many shades of grey. The "up" can go up or down, the "down" can go up or down. Some areas which are down seem to be going down further, enter retail.

There is actual value, and there is perceived value. High confidence results in high perceived values. Low confidence (or uncertainty) leads to lower perceived values.

The optimistic view point genuinely is valid. Perhaps not freshly cut grass for me, but definitely fresh steaming hot coffee

Bungling is an emotional word that stuck like poo to a shoe. This may be because many suspect it to be true.

Nah... it,l be fine , just keep spending your money here in Australia, think positive

adolf said...

Mark Faber has awesome accent,.

I'd say it's Swiss. Enjoyed the vid, convincing and certainly knows what he's talking about but he lost some cred on account of whatever that was growing out the back of his head J

j murray said...

We are in the ditch [septic] and being run/held under by immature people on

both sides.. and yes ....we voted for this ...play the last post now.......

"We" voted for this?

Didn't the majority (%) vote for the current opposition?

Last election
4.7 mill voted for Labour
4.9 mill voted for Liberal

bjw said...

Last election
4.7 mill voted for Labour
4.9 mill voted for Liberal

Your side lost. Get over it.

What I don't get is if it's such a mining boom why have all the resources stocks dropped 10% in two months?

$AUS > $US