I do...

We all need less government in our lives, so we can have confidence to crank it up again...

Unfortunately, the Labs are hitting us from every direction with a new tax just about every month. And some taxes and other ideas they test through the media for popular appeal. This = uncertainty. Uncertainty = bad.

Comments on the Labs, bait for the log :p

SandS said...


thats is interesting , so what are you doing Adolf, buying or selling?

I've been selling off my shares for the past month. Still have some left but I think it's time to cut my losses. I don't think you have to be an expert to see that things don't look quite right.

Retail is dying - you don't see people in shops anymore. Property values are leveling off and look like dropping. The stimulus packages have now stopped and there is no money in the kitty to fall back on. News from the rest of the world is also looking bleak. Two months ago they were saying everything is fine with Greece - now they look certain to default. The US can hardly tell them to pull their finger out while they keep on printing money to support their own failing economy.

Swan tells us repeatedly how peachy everything is in Australia with the so called "mining boom" and demand from China etc. What I don't get is if it's such a mining boom why have all the resources stocks dropped 10% in two months?

I guess we will know in October if we are in a recession - my bet is we are heading for the mother of all recessions.

Not a bloody chance are we heading for a recession, not a bloody chance!
Big global business houses are all on the make.
Yes there are the ones falling over, and main reason being that they were always a bad risk anyway. Yes some may fail, but mainly due to bad business decisions in the past.
But anybody who swallows the line of a recession looming, needs to have been through one and see the lead up/down business activity, the scraggy arse bounce across the bottom and the climb out after.
Just ride it out, it will get sweet

mineral1 said...

Not a bloody chance are we heading for a recession, not a bloody chance!
Big global business houses are all on the make.
Yes there are the ones falling over, and main reason being that they were always a bad risk anyway. Yes some may fail, but mainly due to bad business decisions in the past.
But anybody who swallows the line of a recession looming, needs to have been through one and see the lead up/down business activity, the scraggy arse bounce across the bottom and the climb out after.
Just ride it out, it will get sweet

I guess you woke up and drank from the half full glass this morning. If I was you I would be buying everything with open arms - bargains everywhere at the moment.

Pugwash said...

I do...

We all need less government in our lives, so we can have confidence to crank it up again...

Unfortunately, the Labs are hitting us from every direction with a new tax just about every month. And some taxes and other ideas they test through the media for popular appeal. This = uncertainty. Uncertainty = bad.

Comments on the Labs, bait for the log :p

Hey, it's bait for me too! Why does he get all the fun?

Yeah, right. Less government just means less stability. Fine if you are self sufficient, but sadly more government means more stability.

More government means more public service. More public service jobs means more stability for a lot of people, and that stability means that they can consume. The more they consume the more people that sell things can have a stable business.

You think the world economy cares about whether the Labor government adds a tax here or there?

A tax could make an economy slow down or a tax could make an economy speed up. It all depends on what the government does with the income it gets from the tax.

Care to guess which government tends to spend more on social spending, and which one saves it up and gleefully announces it has saved and gotten a surplus?

I think you got me there, but I hate it when a basic misunderstanding of economics gets a hold

nebbian said...

Have you noticed that the companies that are struggling are ones that are trying to compete with online sales?

The writing has been on the wall for ages. The internet is responsible for Angus&Robertson/Borders closing its doors.

Recently I checked out the prices of some books, it was cheaper for me to order my books from amazon in the USA than it was to wander down to my local bookstore. So I let my mouse-button do the talking. I guarantee many others are doing the same. The strong Aussie dollar is also a big factor here.


BHP shares are 40% higher than they were two years ago. This is a pretty good sign to me that things are on the improve

Greece is a worry though, heard some talk today that they might bring down the EU

Colorado closed down two days ago: www.smh.com.au/business/retailer-colorado-to-close-jobs-to-go-20110614-1g21f.html - can't see how they blame the internet for that closure.

BHP shares on 16 June 2009 were $36.46 today they are $42.00 - that's 15% in two years. Since their high two months ago they've dropped 18%. You'd be better off having the money in the bank.

Greece is a worry, and after that then there is Ireland and Spain. Oh let's not forget the US - they said they are going to stop printing money end of June. I'm guessing that should be interesting.

This mornings Age newspaper is a little full of retail gloom stories, unfortunately there are lots of new shopping centres and retailing companies have been expanding on the hope of some magical increase of population and continued spending, how many DFO's do we need or bookshops, one look at borders in chapel st, of supermarket size, at about $2000 per sq m rent, 3/4 of the space is walkways albeit expensive ones, or do we need 44 Gazman mens clothing shops in Melb? No. but the demise of them like so many other businesses of similiar model creates opportunities for others, leaner, smarter to take advantage and so a cycle begins again, also maybe consumers are awakening from a big spend to realize we don't need any more stuff, you just have to look at the hard rubbish that we throw out on the, its works the other way for me, I scored some great chairs, plastic boxes and ......

BHP:

adolf said...

nice graph, lovely colours,

the trend is up

I have no doubt we are heading towards a reccesion, we were due to have one some years ago but with gov spending (stimulis) etc. It has been delayed. In 25 years my order book has never been so empty (I'm a small to medium commercial builder)

There is a lot of TALK about the boom, but I think it's all Swan and Gilliard spin to be honest.

I will be OK as I'm not over extended with debt etc, but I fear for the peolple that live week to week to pay off the mortgage..

I hope I'm wrong

The only thing we have to worry about is China.
If it turns out China's miracle is just another ponzi scheme for party dictated growth... then we're in so much trouble it aint funny.

If the music keeps playing there... just remember it's our resources building China, and the trinkets we value so much.
Japan got hit hard by that Earth mover of a quake, and they'll be ramping up production at the end of summer.

Most Australians are max'ed out or waiting it out... so growth is doubtful. But agriculture, energy and mining will keep us above water.

I've been hedging my bets for a while so I never really make much or lose much... it's been about wealth preservation.

Pugwash said...

^^^JUST jokin'

This one is not about the way the world sees us, it is about how we see ourselves. It is about local confidence. The industry I work in is cranking, but I, like many others, am saving.

The meddling, bungling, uncertainty is going to exacerbate the "two-speed" economy.

The Labs will take the doe, blow loads with crazy schemes, and pass back a pittance.

What does that mean? It does sound like something you could hear on talk-back radio. Lots of emotion, but no actual substance.

Pass back a pittance? I am not sure where money could go apart from back into the economy or saved as a surplus. 'Someone' gets the money, it doesn't just vanish.

I am sure the media has pushed this idea of 'bungling' yet there doesn't seem to be any stack of evidence to back it up.

Sure, local confidence makes a difference, but thinking we are isolated from the rest of the world's economy is naive.

Red thumbs? What do they mean? Is that approval? Thanks!

Since about 2005 and the next 50 years its going to so something like this:
1. demand for oil increases
2. supply is restricted as we are using more oil than we are finding the world's supergiant fields are all in decline
3. price of oil goes up (>$100/bbl, which would have been unthinkable as few as 13 years ago when it was ~$10/bbl)
4. economy slows down
5. price of oil eases (new higher "basement" price though)
6. go back to 1

We need to get off this treadmill, but the the longer it goes the harder it will be as through each cycle the overall cost of oil will go up, which increases all energy costs across the board, including investment in non-fossil fuel energy sources, which also have a much lower EROEI (energy returned on energy invested). Which is to be expected in a capitalist society - the most profitable (highest EROEI) energy sources were developed first - which also generally means they'll be (fully) consumed first.

adolf said...

When they predict green arrows, you invest the time and the actual is red arrows.