Skepticism and critical thinking

Select to expand quote

japie said..

...
I've had malaria. Most of us did as kids in Tanzania. Generally came about through being careless by not taking the weekly chloroquine tablet. The Africans call it Sunday Sunday. Because that's when they take it. It's been off patent for decades and literally costs cents. It works. The safety profile is established.

Of course because the disease still exists there is a commercial opportunity for the silver tongued thieves who command sway with the WHO.

Chloroquine does NOT work. It was withdrawn because the Plasmodium evolved resistance through random mutation and natural selection.

Two myths busted in one whack-a-mole. I'm getting good at this.

Select to expand quote

japie said..

So the CEO of One America was regurgitating drivel when he announced that his company experienced this " incredible rise in deaths and claims".

I cannot take you seriously. You purport to be a scientist and yet your final go to is comments like this! I know who to believe because the data is similar worldwide except in countries that did not vaccinate widely.

I'd love to know what your agenda is but I won't be holding my breath because you have already exposed yourself as one of those ratty norvegicus standard fibbers of note.

Have a great day! I shan't be wasting any more of my time responding to you.

One America! Hahahahaaa. I remember them denying that people were dying from covid. They laughed at the early prediction of deaths that turned out to be quite close for the US. Some blond bombshell repeating "didn't happen" over and over again. They have probably deleted that video.

Select to expand quote

remery said..

FormulaNova said..

Man, I think you are just a whinger. You complained about being locked up so you can't hug your grandchildren a few kilometres away when in Vicco. You then moved to WA when travel opened up. You even told us on here that you had PTSD from being locked up. I guess the rest of Victoria are still getting over it too.

You then said you were very cautious about the Covid vaccines, so you stayed away from them and enlisted yourself on a custom vaccine trial. Presumably because you knew something that no one else did. What do you know, you got a reaction to the vaccine. Would you have gotten the same reaction from the Pfizer vaccine or god-forbid Covid itself? Who knows.

You then go on about wanting compensation and that they denied you. I wouldn't be surprised if you were happily kiting during the whole time. Certainly not impaired anything close to what OK has gone through.

We went through a pandemic. You are a baby. Your life doesn't seem too bad, so stop whinging. Maybe give OK a call from your new beachhouse and tell him how tough your life has been the last few years. I am sure he will feel sorry for you.

People were being afflicted with pericarditis and myocarditis long before covid vaccination. My mother had the former 20 years ago.

Agreed. My boss at my first job had it from some virus (flu?) he caught. Apparently he almost died.

Sadly, people have been dying 'early' for a long time, it's just now that some people are super focussed on it and want to think its a conspiracy.

Select to expand quote

japie said..
Did observe one lady have a horrific reaction, shaking like she had St Vitus Dance but there you go,

I have seen many people have many reactions to a jab, usually in my case it was local anaesthetics. Some people had 'events' without even having any 'jab' administered. A saline mouthwash in a syringe was another case of unexpected outcomes. The brain and autonomic system plays very cruel tricks on some people. The point being, in the vast majority of cases, the event had nothing to do with the injected drug. I think you can gain some comfort from the likelihood there was a good chance your lady above was probably in this category. But as a thought, what would you do if you required local aesthetic for a procedure? My very conservative rubbery figures put the risk of an adverse event from local anaesthetic about 2500 times higher than the Moderna vaccine. (Severe adverse reactions the figure increases to at least 10 000 times more likely)

Select to expand quote

FormulaNova said..

remery said..

People were being afflicted with pericarditis and myocarditis long before covid vaccination. My mother had the former 20 years ago.

Agreed. My boss at my first job had it from some virus (flu?) he caught. Apparently he almost died.

Sadly, people have been dying 'early' for a long time, it's just now that some people are super focussed on it and want to think its a conspiracy.

Woohoo anectocdotal evidence pile on. My physically fit and healthy mate ended up in hospital with pericarditis for no obvious reason a couple of decades ago. It was a reaction to the food colouring in the 'Redskins' lollies he ate as a child. Probably.

Select to expand quote

Pcdefender said..
Vaccination is not beneficial for your health.

I think you got something right! Woo Hoo! LOL!

Obviously the body does not like being attacked, and a vaccine is just another attack or simulated attack, so it wastes resources learning how to neutralise it.

Clearly your body would be better off by not having a vaccine or getting attacked by any virus at all.

Do you have that choice?

Not me, I live in the real world where there are plenty of viruses, lots of contact with animals, and viruses have mutated to try and dominate the world.

One of my favorite subjects lately is the idea that the immune system needs to be challenged by pathogens when it is young, and the body learns to react to them with a reasonable response. Delay that exposure and maybe the body over-reacts to these pathogens and hey presto you have an allergy to pretty normal stuff in the environment.


But, hey, I know this is sciency stuff and relies on knowledge of things, and other clever stuff.

I don't know enough about veggies and nicotine and nano structures and other lah lah idiot ideas. Well, I haven't seen the peer reviewed articles about it or even mention of them, but they are veggies and nano structures sounds so cool, so it must be right.

Would a smashed avocado on toast and a poached egg achieve the same effect? I hope so.


P.S. clearly the comment about being interested in the mRNA malaria vaccine was a sarcastic comment. Well, I hope it was clear or Psycho Joe has just had another side effect from his novel vaccine trial.

Select to expand quote

FormulaNova said..

fangman said..

FormulaNova said..

remery said..

People were being afflicted with pericarditis and myocarditis long before covid vaccination. My mother had the former 20 years ago.

Agreed. My boss at my first job had it from some virus (flu?) he caught. Apparently he almost died.

Sadly, people have been dying 'early' for a long time, it's just now that some people are super focussed on it and want to think its a conspiracy.

Woohoo anectocdotal evidence pile on. My physically fit and healthy mate ended up in hospital with pericarditis for no obvious reason a couple of decades ago. It was a reaction to the food colouring in the 'Redskins' lollies he ate as a child. Probably.

That's BS! I have some redskins (or whatever they are now called) in the pantry and eat them when I remember they are there. I haven't once had pericarditis from them, but I have had pericarditis from the Pfdizer vaccine I had. "redskins" LOL as PM33 would say.

TBH I was going to blame the 'F*gs' lolly cigarettes, but I somehow that didn't sound above board.

Select to expand quote

japie said..
Interesting responses! For me science has always been about curiosity. How does something work? Why does such and such happen?... Time advances and I begin reading reports of excess mortality. Quite significant reports of excess mortality. Very significant actually. Like 40% in some areas and we are talking about millennials. To put it in perspective a 10% rise is equivalent to a 200 year flood.

The data came from the insurance business. This data is rock solid. Insurance companies do not get it wrong.

Yes, insurance companies no not get it wrong.

[NOTE: Belgium started the roll-out of its COVID-19 vaccination campaign on 28 December 2020, initially targeting nursing homes residents and personnel]

COVID-19 and Excess Mortality: An Actuarial Study
by .
Risks 2024, 12(4), 61; doi.org/10.3390/risks12040061
Published: 30 March 2024
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Events: Mortality Modelling and Insurance)

Introduction
The recent SARS-CoV health crisis shows clear evidence that we are not immune to pandemics and their economic effects despite medical advances and robust health systems. Indeed, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries indicate that the 1918 Spanish flu, which was responsible for the deaths of more than 50 million people, had a cost of around GBP 13 billion to insurance companies. Pandemics are also becoming more likely, see, e.g., the H2N2 flu from 1957-1958, the H3N2 1968 flu, the H1N1 flu from 2009-2010, and, more recently, the Ebola epidemic from 2014-2016.
The increasing frequency and severity of pandemics call for an in-depth actuarial analysis of mortality and its effect on pricing and reserving. In particular, pandemics have a heterogenous effect on populations. Indeed, certain socio-economic groups are more susceptible than others to becoming sick and dying, making basic life tables unsuitable for pricing and risk management. It becomes natural to consider a model that incorporates epidemiological insights and dependence.
The study of mortality is an ever-active field of research, and new methods or combinations of methods are constantly being developed. In the actuarial domain, the study of phenomena disrupting mortality and leading to excess mortality, as in the case of COVID-19, is of great interest. Investigating the extent to which an epidemiological model can be integrated into an actuarial approach in the context of mortality is, hence, relevant. The aim of this project is to establish a method for the study of excess mortality due to an epidemic and to quantify these effects in the context of the insurance world to anticipate certain possible short-term financial instabilities.
In this paper, we consider the epidemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium during the year 2020. For this, we used the daily COVID mortality data from the national health data of Sciensano. After capturing COVID-19-specific mortality using an extended version of a susceptible-infectious-recovered-death compartmental model from Franco (2021), we studied overall mortality using data from the Human Mortality Database (2021) and the Cairns, Blake, and Dowd. Feng et al. also used a compartmental model to study the effect of COVID-19 in order to price epidemic insurance plans to finance medical costs during infection. Contrary to their work, we focus on the effect of COVID-19 excess of death on classical pre-existing life insurance policies. We focus on older age patients in our study, as these were most affected by the pandemic from a mortality viewpoint.
Combining these two models allowed us to perform an actuarial study on two life insurance products: whole life insurance and lifetime immediate annuities. We study these products in two settings: an old contract underwritten in 2000 and a recent contract underwritten in 2019, a year before the pandemic. We calculated their expected value and variance. We observe that the variance increases more importantly for recent contracts despite the insured being younger. For older contracts with older insured users, the variance is reduced. We hypothesize that this could be due to a different distribution of mortalities in the COVID vs. no-COVID scenario. Indeed, the uncertainty would be greater for younger individuals who still have a long period remaining in the contract. However, for older individuals, the presence of COVID-19 renders the event of death more "certain".

Select to expand quote

Pcdefender said..

psychojoe said..


I had two years of chest pain from the vaccine.

What I'm currently interested in is the new mRNA malaria shot. I hear it's safe and effective.

Vaccination is not beneficial for your health.

Chest pain after taking the covid vaccine and you are still interested in others?

If you take the time to watch from just past 57 minutes to around 65 minutes you will come across information that may help you heal.

Eggplant,white potatos,cauliflower,tomato and celery - the nicotine from these foods removes the nano structures.


odysee.com/@DollarVigilante:b/Acapulco-Rocked-VIDEO-1080p:1

"Pharmaceuticalisation as the tobacco industry's endgame
...
Context: Declining smoking prevalence and denormalisation of tobacco in developed countries reduced transnational tobacco company (TTC) profit during 1990s and 2000s. As these companies faced increasingly restrictive policies and lawsuits, they planned to shift their business to socially acceptable reduced-harm products. We describe the internal motivations and strategies to achieve this goal.

Methods: We analysed previously secret tobacco industry documents available through the Truth Tobacco Documents Library. These documents were triangulated with TTCs' investor and other professional reports, websites and public statements.

Findings: Mimicking pharmaceutical business models, tobacco companies sought to refurbish their image and ensure long-term profitability by creating and selling pharmaceutical-like products as smoking declined. These products included snus, heated tobacco products, e-cigarettes, nicotine gums and inhalers. Tobacco companies created separate divisions to develop and roll out these products, and the majority developed medical research programmes to steer these products through regulatory agencies, seeking certification as reduced-harm or pharmaceutical products. These products were regarded as key to the survival of the tobacco industry in an unfriendly political and social climate.

Conclusions: Pharmaceuticalisation was pursued to perpetuate the profitability of tobacco and nicotine for tobacco companies, not as a sincere search to mitigate the harms of smoking in society. Promotion of new pharmaceuticalised products has split the tobacco control community, with some public health professionals and institutions advocating for the use of 'clean' reduced-harm nicotine and tobacco products, essentially carrying out tobacco industry objectives.

Data availability statement: Data sharing not applicable as no datasets generated and/or analysed for this study. All documents reference in the article are freely available in the Truth Tobacco Industry documents library at www.industrydocuments.ucsf.edu/tobacco/"

Select to expand quote

FormulaNova said..

P.S. clearly the comment about being interested in the mRNA malaria vaccine was a sarcastic comment. Well, I hope it was clear or Psycho Joe has just had another side effect from his novel vaccine trial.

So far this year there have been 295,000 malaria deaths.

Bill Gates has donated over a billion to fight against malaria - a disease that affects more than 200 million people each year.

When I travel to malaria regions I take Malarone (atovaquone 250mg and proguanil hydrochloride 100mg).

Select to expand quote

remery said..

fangman said..

Woohoo anectocdotal evidence pile on. My physically fit and healthy mate ended up in hospital with pericarditis for no obvious reason a couple of decades ago. It was a reaction to the food colouring in the 'Redskins' lollies he ate as a child. Probably.

My mum's pericarditis was cause by all the Bex she had in the 60's. There is no evidence of that, but Just said it, so therefore it is the truth.

I think Bex were a combination of aspirin and caffeine. One of my grandfathers stockpiled them when they banned them/stopped selling them. I think he used to take one everyday. I think the marketing then was something like 'take once a day, Bex'.

Interestingly they now sell combination paracetamol and caffeine tablets which probably amount to about the same thing, without the blood thining aspect of aspirin. Clearly big pharma was curing people with Bex and stopped selling them to increase their profits.

Select to expand quote

japie said..

remery said..

japie said.

Can't get any more robust than insurance actuary figures.

Those are the figures I'm talking about, the ones that showed excess mortality before covid vaccination. Excess mortality a little higher than recorded covid deaths.

I don't know what figures you are talking about. This is part of the transcript from the interview with Edward Dowd. It couldn't be any clearer than this. It ain't got nothing to do with covid.

" In January of 2022 we got the first inkling that something was very very wrong potentially and that was One America CEO was on a chamber of commerce call and he wasn't aware that a reporter, Margeret Menge from City View in Indiana, was following this chamber of commerce meeting, and he mentioned that in the second half of 2021 all cause mortality of especially working age members had risen to a stunning 40% and just to put a frame around that a 10% increase in excess mortality for this working age group would be a once in 200 year flood. 40% was just off the charts and to understand why this was so significant it was the Group Life business and group life is a specific business. It's not individual policy holders it's people who work for corporations and I remember, and I am sure many of you who have been employed in different corporations when you're on board with the corporation you sign up with your health care and then you sign a death benefit that is given to you basically for free and it's anywhere from a $50k to $200k policy and if you're not married you sign off the benefit to your parents.So when we are all on board we never expect to collect.

Well in the second half of 2021 Scott Davidson sent off the warning signal that his company, which is a hundred billion dollar insurance company, experienced just this incredible rise in deaths and claims.
Fast forward to February when the insurance companies start reporting I see similar results from other companies."

I thought you were going to supply insurance actuarial data?
Not the transcript of a video where the only identified data (which means we can look it up ourselves) comes from USA CDC.(which he clearly misrepresents).

Maybe I missed it, but if you could provide a link to his data from One Life?

Select to expand quote

D3 said..

japie said..

remery said..

japie said.

Can't get any more robust than insurance actuary figures.

Those are the figures I'm talking about, the ones that showed excess mortality before covid vaccination. Excess mortality a little higher than recorded covid deaths.

I don't know what figures you are talking about. This is part of the transcript from the interview with Edward Dowd. It couldn't be any clearer than this. It ain't got nothing to do with covid.

" In January of 2022 we got the first inkling that something was very very wrong potentially and that was One America CEO was on a chamber of commerce call and he wasn't aware that a reporter, Margeret Menge from City View in Indiana, was following this chamber of commerce meeting, and he mentioned that in the second half of 2021 all cause mortality of especially working age members had risen to a stunning 40% and just to put a frame around that a 10% increase in excess mortality for this working age group would be a once in 200 year flood. 40% was just off the charts and to understand why this was so significant it was the Group Life business and group life is a specific business. It's not individual policy holders it's people who work for corporations and I remember, and I am sure many of you who have been employed in different corporations when you're on board with the corporation you sign up with your health care and then you sign a death benefit that is given to you basically for free and it's anywhere from a $50k to $200k policy and if you're not married you sign off the benefit to your parents.So when we are all on board we never expect to collect.

Well in the second half of 2021 Scott Davidson sent off the warning signal that his company, which is a hundred billion dollar insurance company, experienced just this incredible rise in deaths and claims.
Fast forward to February when the insurance companies start reporting I see similar results from other companies."

I thought you were going to supply insurance actuarial data?
Not the transcript of a video where the only identified data (which means we can look it up ourselves) comes from USA CDC.(which he clearly misrepresents).

Maybe I missed it, but if you could provide a link to his data from One Life?

No I can't. Not because I don't want to. Or that I cannot. It's because it would be an utter waste of time. The only reason I posted more than usual over the weekend was because we were inundated by rain so I had some spare time on my hands.

As I do at this minute. The slab is prepared and we are waiting for he concrete to arrive.

However if you cared to delve into it you could. There are numerous science professionals, medical professionals, politicians and legal professionals pursuing the issue.

Unfortunately they do not get any media coverage. Which is simple to explain. The main stream media is captured. As are pretty much all of the bureaucratic organisations such as the WHO, CDC, TGA.

However the truth will out. As is evidenced by the growing reluctance to vaccinate. All vaccinations.

And the growing public acceptance that the legacy media is pretty much a propaganda operation. Which is why the likes of X, Telegram, and Rumble are growing exponentially.

Podcasters are rapidly replacing the likes of the ABC and CNN.
Anyway concrete pump is here. Have a good day.

Select to expand quote

japie said..


Unfortunately they do not get any media coverage. Which is simple to explain. The main stream media is captured. As are pretty much all of the bureaucratic organisations such as the WHO, CDC, TGA.

And the growing public acceptance that the legacy media is pretty much a propaganda operation. Which is why the likes of X, Telegram, and Rumble are growing exponentially.

Oh no, who captured them?

Select to expand quote

japie said..

D3 said..

japie said..

remery said..

japie said.

Can't get any more robust than insurance actuary figures.

Those are the figures I'm talking about, the ones that showed excess mortality before covid vaccination. Excess mortality a little higher than recorded covid deaths.

I don't know what figures you are talking about. This is part of the transcript from the interview with Edward Dowd. It couldn't be any clearer than this. It ain't got nothing to do with covid.

" In January of 2022 we got the first inkling that something was very very wrong potentially and that was One America CEO was on a chamber of commerce call and he wasn't aware that a reporter, Margeret Menge from City View in Indiana, was following this chamber of commerce meeting, and he mentioned that in the second half of 2021 all cause mortality of especially working age members had risen to a stunning 40% and just to put a frame around that a 10% increase in excess mortality for this working age group would be a once in 200 year flood. 40% was just off the charts and to understand why this was so significant it was the Group Life business and group life is a specific business. It's not individual policy holders it's people who work for corporations and I remember, and I am sure many of you who have been employed in different corporations when you're on board with the corporation you sign up with your health care and then you sign a death benefit that is given to you basically for free and it's anywhere from a $50k to $200k policy and if you're not married you sign off the benefit to your parents.So when we are all on board we never expect to collect.

Well in the second half of 2021 Scott Davidson sent off the warning signal that his company, which is a hundred billion dollar insurance company, experienced just this incredible rise in deaths and claims.
Fast forward to February when the insurance companies start reporting I see similar results from other companies."

I thought you were going to supply insurance actuarial data?
Not the transcript of a video where the only identified data (which means we can look it up ourselves) comes from USA CDC.(which he clearly misrepresents).

Maybe I missed it, but if you could provide a link to his data from One Life?

No I can't. Not because I don't want to. Or that I cannot. It's because it would be an utter waste of time. The only reason I posted more than usual over the weekend was because we were inundated by rain so I had some spare time on my hands.

As I do at this minute. The slab is prepared and we are waiting for he concrete to arrive.

However if you cared to delve into it you could. There are numerous science professionals, medical professionals, politicians and legal professionals pursuing the issue.

Unfortunately they do not get any media coverage. Which is simple to explain. The main stream media is captured. As are pretty much all of the bureaucratic organisations such as the WHO, CDC, TGA.

However the truth will out. As is evidenced by the growing reluctance to vaccinate. All vaccinations.

And the growing public acceptance that the legacy media is pretty much a propaganda operation. Which is why the likes of X, Telegram, and Rumble are growing exponentially.

Podcasters are rapidly replacing the likes of the ABC and CNN.
Anyway concrete pump is here. Have a good day.

Because podcasters and content creators on Xitter, Telegram and Rumballs can create whatever fantasy appeals the most to their audience.


I did look a little more into what you posted, couldn't find anything that backed up your claim that actuarial data shows covid vaccination was responsible for those excess deaths. The graph in the video isn't even credited to anyone, so I can't follow that up.

Just someone claiming vaccination was responsible by misrepresenting CDC data and ignoring data from same source which clearly showed Covid infection was responsible.

The actuarial data showing an increase in excess deaths in late 2021 did not actually have anything saying that those insurance payouts were for people who died as a result of covid vaccination.