Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila is bearing down on Far North Queensland. As of Friday 10 April, the system is in the Coral Sea with sustained winds of 165 km/h (89 knots) and gusts to 230 km/h (124 knots), according to Bureau of Meteorology tropical advisories. BOM is forecasting landfall on the Cape York Peninsula early next week, with its current best-track placing the most likely crossing zone between Lockhart River and Cairns. The system is expected to arrive as a Category 2, though BOM meteorologist Liam Smart has warned: "Even with a category 2 system, you shouldn't be thinking 'oh, it'll be fine.'"

Maila has already inflicted real damage before reaching Australian shores. While stalling over the Solomon Sea for several days, it battered the remote Western and Choiseul provinces of the Solomon Islands, causing property destruction across those communities. Three family members are missing after their boat capsized in heavy seas generated by the system, according to the Solomon Islands Broadcasting Corporation (SIBC). The seas Maila is generating are not abstract — maximum significant wave heights in the Solomon Sea reached 9.8 metres (32 ft) according to marine analysis of the system. Those swells are now propagating ahead of the storm into the Coral Sea.

The records this storm has already broken

At its peak, Maila reached Category 5 with a central pressure of 924 hPa and gusts of 260 km/h (140 knots), making it the strongest cyclone ever recorded that far north in the Solomon Sea, according to BOM data . For comparison: Cyclone Narelle, which caused widespread destruction across WA's Gascoyne coast in late March, had a central pressure of 930 hPa at its minimum. Maila's core was 6 hPa deeper, making it a more intense storm at peak than the system that shut Ningaloo Marine Park and damaged Learmonth Airport. Both formed during the same anomalous ocean heat period — the elevated sea surface temperatures that bleached Ningaloo's coral drove Narelle, and the same warmth in the Solomon Sea pushed Maila to a depth no cyclone there has reached on record.

Maila was named by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) in Port Moresby — the first system named by that centre since Cyclone Guba in 2007, according to Weatherzone. Cyclones powerful enough to require the Port Moresby TCWC's naming authority are genuinely rare. Their rarity reflects how anomalously warm the Solomon Sea has been running this season. The 2025-26 Australian region season has produced 11 named cyclones, seven of which have reached severe status — a tally that puts it among the most active on record.

The synoptic driver behind an exceptional season

Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures across the Coral Sea and Solomon Sea are the core driver. BOM's tropical climate monitoring flagged above-average SSTs maintained through the 2025-26 summer by weak La Niña-pattern conditions in the Pacific, which kept the monsoon trough unusually active and positioned further south than its long-term average through February and March. Maila's rapid intensification to Category 5 at an unusually high latitude drew on water warm enough to fuel a system the regional TCWC hasn't had to name in nearly two decades. The 2025-26 season has not just broken historical averages for cyclone count — it has produced events at intensities and locations outside the range that routine season planning accounts for. Maila making landfall on Cape York would make it the third cyclone to affect the Australian mainland this season.

What this means for FNQ's fishers, boaters and divers

If you have a vessel anywhere in far north Queensland's coastal or estuarine waters, the window to act is closing fast. Maila's forecast landfall zone spans roughly 500 km of coastline from Lockhart River down to Cairns. BOM meteorologist Jonathan How stated on Thursday: "There is still some variation in the exact timing among computer models, but confidence is increasing that Maila's track will take it towards northern parts of Cape York Peninsula." That window narrows sharply this weekend. Vessels on moorings or in marinas anywhere between Cairns and Cape York need to be assessed, secured, or relocated within the next 24 hours.

The Coral Sea is already dangerous. Swell generated by Maila's large circulation is propagating well ahead of the centre. Bar crossings at Cooktown, the Endeavour River mouth, and the shallow river entrances up the cape coast can produce breaking seas two to four times wave height in a strong cross-swell — conditions that are lethal for vessels attempting to cross on a building sea. The time to cross in was earlier this week. Do not attempt a bar crossing on the approach of a system of this size. Adding to the swell loading: Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu — a concurrent Category 3 system east of Fiji — has been pumping swell into the east coast this weekend, according to The Nightly. FNQ's marine environment is absorbing energy from two active systems at once.

The Coral Sea offshore dive sites are unserviceable for the duration of Maila's approach and passage. Osprey Reef, Bougainville Reef, and the Ribbon Reefs — the offshore pinnacles and reef walls that draw liveaboard operators from Cairns and Port Douglas — require an overnight open-water crossing and settled conditions for anchoring. Neither is available. Operators with liveaboards currently at sea on the Coral Sea should already have turned back. After the system passes, allow a minimum of 48–72 hours for the swell field to settle before considering any offshore passage, and longer before anchoring on exposed offshore reefs.

Inshore fishers targeting the start of the Spanish mackerel and coral trout season face an unwelcome interruption. April normally marks the opening of the Cape York reef edge for trailer boat fishers working mackerel schools pushing south as water temperatures begin to ease from summer highs. That bite is on hold until conditions normalise post-Maila. The estuarine fisheries — barramundi, mangrove jack, and flathead along the cape's rivers — will receive significant flood inflows from Maila's rainfall, dropping salinity and pushing fish away from their usual holding areas for several days to a week.

A saturated landscape facing a second hit

The cape is still recovering from Cyclone Narelle, which made landfall in far north Queensland in late March before crossing the Northern Territory and re-emerging in the Indian Ocean. According to Cape York Weekly, Narelle was a Category 4 system with 225 km/h (121 knot) winds, affecting more than 47,000 square kilometres and leaving some communities without supply access for a week after its passage. Catchments across the cape and into the Gulf absorbed significant rainfall from Narelle, and river systems have had less than three weeks to drain. Maila's rainfall will not arrive on dry ground — the flooding risk from a system that would be manageable in isolation is substantially worse on a saturated landscape.

"Even with a category 2 system, you shouldn't be thinking 'oh, it'll be fine.'" — BOM meteorologist Liam Smart

Smart's point carries weight for the coastal marine context specifically. Storm surge is determined not just by a cyclone's intensity at landfall but by its approach angle, continental shelf bathymetry, forward speed, and tide state at crossing time. A slow-moving Category 2 on a shallow shelf at high tide can produce surge heights comparable to a faster, stronger system. BOM's storm surge modelling at extended range is not resolved enough to give specific heights for individual communities — that detail emerges as the track tightens. Category number is not the complete picture.

Questions

Is Cairns directly in the path? As of 10 April, BOM's most likely crossing zone runs from Lockhart River south toward the Cairns area. Cairns is within the plausible range. Track updates over the next 48 hours will narrow the zone — monitor advisories as the picture becomes clearer.

When can boats return to the Coral Sea after landfall? Minimum 48–72 hours after passage for sea state to begin settling. Given the swell field Maila has already established, offshore passages may take longer. Bar crossings should not be attempted until swell period drops, the bar is readable in daylight, and conditions are confirmed by a local spotter or Coast Guard report.

What about the Great Barrier Reef? The reef between Cairns and Cape York attenuates wave energy for inshore waters but will experience significant wave action itself. Post-cyclone surveys by AIMS and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority take weeks — the physical state of affected reef sections won't be known quickly. Given the bleaching and physical damage already recorded across the northern reef system in 2025-26, the cumulative impact is a question for researchers.

Is this the last cyclone of the season? BOM has not issued any end-of-season advice. The SSTs that sustained an 11-cyclone season have not yet moderated. Late April is within the typical wind-down period, but this season has operated outside typical parameters repeatedly.

For the latest marine forecasts and conditions along the FNQ coast as Maila approaches, monitor Seabreeze marine forecasts.