the top picture is the gfs (american) computer model for the 24th of jan. wind guru is loosely based on gfs. the colours indicate rainfall intensity. so the yellow/red/pink blobs would be associated with low pressure system along the monsoon trough line. these can turn into cyclones if conditions are favourable. as the lows increase in intensity they break away from the trough and head south. sometimes they drag the trough with them bringing lots of rain.
the middle picture is the ecmwf (european) computer model for the 23rd jan. the bom's marine weather longrange and seabreeze is loosely based on this model. the colours indicate wind speed near surface level in meter/sec. it basically shows areas of low pressure. the ones to our north are associated with the monsoon trough. a tight circle with dark green around all side would be a deep low or a cyclone.
when both gfs and ecmwf are predicting a similar outcome it gives more confidence in the predictions. both the models above show pretty much the same synoptic situation around the 23rd.
still could mean nothing at all. it's a prediction only. but based on the models i'd say there is a very good chance of a decent low popping up near cairns somewhere around the 21st. what happens from there is anyones guess. whether the low intensifies or not depends on uppe level conditions to a large extent.
but things are looking good. the sea surface temps in the coral sea are super high. the mjo is in the right place.
wind shear is predicted to increase around the 23rd so that could slow things down.
currently (and this will change daily) a low is predicted to form, intensify, then die off for a bit due to shear, then strengthen again. it will probably wonder all over the place within that timeframe IF it does form.
i usually start looking at these models at the beginning of cyclone season. i live in hope i will one day use my 84lt board.
i held off posting the tide chart until the models had continued with their prediction of a low over a couple of updates.
both models have now shown the low over 2 update cycles.
if nothing comes of this round there is another mjo pulse forecast for latefeb/early march.
Hey Justin, weather forecasting is obviously very complex. Is this a hobby of yours or have you just taken the need to know when it will be windy to the next level ?
hey clive,
busy life has lead me down this path. trying to figure out the wind 1-2 weeks down the track so i can plan life.
i've been wrong on so many occasions a better outcome was to buy a bigger board. 
Hey Justin, seeing you know so much about this, can put in an order for more SE'lies???
Someone said today they would rather 2 x 20kt days than 1x30kt and 1x10 kt day!!! BOM should be able to arrange this surely! Or maybe not.
Think I'm dreaming again, must be the home brew.......
soo....
gfs has the low deepening near cairns on 18th, suggesting cyclone by 21st/22nd as it slowly moves east away from the coast. at which point it keeps going east and au revoir. nada wind. by the 25th it's all over.
ecmwf has the low sitting in the gulf an intensifying slowly until by monday or tuesday it crosses the cape heading east. turns into a cyclone around 24th/25th intensifies and wanderers around a bit while slowly going Nor-east.
to far out time wise for the model after that.
bom access models saying cyclone off cairns around 22/23rd and moving east away from the coast. only goes out 7 days so no idea after that.
should be windy in yepoon 
bom cyclone update is out.
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:36pm EST on Friday the 18th of January 2013 and valid until end of
Monday
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough currently extends from a low over the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria to the northern Coral Sea. A weak low is expected to develop on the
Monsoon trough near the North Tropical Coast during Sunday and is expected to
move slowly to the east where it may develop further on Monday.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday: Very low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Moderate
NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
some models are starting to return to a SE track forecast. who knows.....
some good low tides at burrum from the 26th onwards.
Hey "Gestalt" I need to get my front lawn top dressed. It seems as though you have a **** load of time on your hands. Can you help me out mate.
Hey "Gestalt" I need to get my front lawn top dressed. It seems as though you have a **** load of time on your hands. Can you help me out mate.
latest bom notice is out and it's all bad news at this point. looks like more kite friendly winds ahead.
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:31pm EST on Saturday the 19th of January 2013 and valid until end of
Tuesday
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
An active monsoon trough currently extends from the Gulf of Carpentaria to the
northern Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to develop further during the
outlook period.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday: Very low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Low
NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Yeah looking at the Seabreeze graph it seems to be a good week for fishing!! Or dreaming......
yeah, i'm going for a sup at high tide at vp.
bugger with the wind. the low formed as predicted but went the wrong way and ended up in the northern territory.
there's a lot of action in the far north at the moment so anything can happen.
will be interesting to look at the charts on the 24th and see how close the models were. there is still talk that in 3-4 days something may spin up.
Sheesh. HAS NOBODY LEARNED YET? You take any prediction for more than 3 days ahead AND IT WILL BE THE OPPOSITE.
I've a 90% success rate using this method.
well maybe so. i did say above these are only predictions from computer models and anything can happen.
so here is what i said on the 14th
"based on the models i'd say there is a very good chance of a decent low popping up near cairns somewhere around the 21st"
here is the bom chart from today.
chart from yesterday
what's your thoughts panda.
here is the current bom track map.
here is what i wrote the models were saying 7 days ago.
"ecmwf has the low sitting in the gulf an intensifying slowly until by monday or tuesday it crosses the cape heading east. turns into a cyclone around 24th/25th"
this may not eventuate of course. some models are saying a 180 turn around is possible sending it back to the gulf.
well there you go. not quite cyclone but the models were pretty good sugesting this over a week ago.
jtwc update
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN A 222312Z TRMM IMAGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 222341Z
SHOWS STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CAPE
YORK PENINSULA DESPITE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC, WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE POSITIONED OVER LAND, ONLY SHOWING 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SYSTEM GIVING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A TRACK
OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED STRUCTURE, UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
