The top picture looks nice but you have to tell us what were looking at .

the top picture is the gfs (american) computer model for the 24th of jan. wind guru is loosely based on gfs. the colours indicate rainfall intensity. so the yellow/red/pink blobs would be associated with low pressure system along the monsoon trough line. these can turn into cyclones if conditions are favourable. as the lows increase in intensity they break away from the trough and head south. sometimes they drag the trough with them bringing lots of rain.


the middle picture is the ecmwf (european) computer model for the 23rd jan. the bom's marine weather longrange and seabreeze is loosely based on this model. the colours indicate wind speed near surface level in meter/sec. it basically shows areas of low pressure. the ones to our north are associated with the monsoon trough. a tight circle with dark green around all side would be a deep low or a cyclone.

when both gfs and ecmwf are predicting a similar outcome it gives more confidence in the predictions. both the models above show pretty much the same synoptic situation around the 23rd.

still could mean nothing at all. it's a prediction only. but based on the models i'd say there is a very good chance of a decent low popping up near cairns somewhere around the 21st. what happens from there is anyones guess. whether the low intensifies or not depends on uppe level conditions to a large extent.

but things are looking good. the sea surface temps in the coral sea are super high. the mjo is in the right place.

wind shear is predicted to increase around the 23rd so that could slow things down.

currently (and this will change daily) a low is predicted to form, intensify, then die off for a bit due to shear, then strengthen again. it will probably wonder all over the place within that timeframe IF it does form.

i usually start looking at these models at the beginning of cyclone season. i live in hope i will one day use my 84lt board.

Hey Justin, weather forecasting is obviously very complex. Is this a hobby of yours or have you just taken the need to know when it will be windy to the next level ?

Hey Justin, seeing you know so much about this, can put in an order for more SE'lies???
Someone said today they would rather 2 x 20kt days than 1x30kt and 1x10 kt day!!! BOM should be able to arrange this surely! Or maybe not.
Think I'm dreaming again, must be the home brew.......

i would like a 40 knot day

Hey "Gestalt" I need to get my front lawn top dressed. It seems as though you have a **** load of time on your hands. Can you help me out mate.

lol, i hope you asked your boyfriend before asking me.

Yeah looking at the Seabreeze graph it seems to be a good week for fishing!! Or dreaming......

Sheesh. HAS NOBODY LEARNED YET? You take any prediction for more than 3 days ahead AND IT WILL BE THE OPPOSITE.
I've a 90% success rate using this method.

evlPanda said...
Sheesh. HAS NOBODY LEARNED YET? You take any prediction for more than 3 days ahead AND IT WILL BE THE OPPOSITE.
I've a 90% success rate using this method.

LIKE!!!

what's your thoughts panda.

here is the current bom track map.



here is what i wrote the models were saying 7 days ago.

"ecmwf has the low sitting in the gulf an intensifying slowly until by monday or tuesday it crosses the cape heading east. turns into a cyclone around 24th/25th"

this may not eventuate of course. some models are saying a 180 turn around is possible sending it back to the gulf.

well there you go. not quite cyclone but the models were pretty good sugesting this over a week ago.

latest update from oz cyclone chasers