Quarter of U.S mortgages underwater

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petermac33
petermac33
WA
6415 posts
WA, 6415 posts
30 Jul 2011 3:02pm
what does this mean to me?

the banks own more and more real estate,people are in debt big-time.

if rent is cheaper than paying your mortgage,then i would just walk away as house price is not going to go up.



www.huffpost.com/entry/big-oil-profits_n_913452
pweedas
pweedas
WA
4642 posts
WA, 4642 posts
30 Jul 2011 3:50pm
Yes Pweet, but you seem to miss the point.
You can pay rent for 20 years and it might even be a bit cheaper than paying a mortgage, but,... at the end of 20 years paying rent you have NOTHING! ZERO ! ZILCH! S.F.A. !!
Or you can pay a mortgage for twenty years and at the end of 20 years you will probably have,.. a house owned either entirely or at least mostly by you.

Which means,.. you don't have quartely inspections by rental agents that come around and poke through all you rooms and stuff saying tut tut tut.
You don't have to find another place to live because the house you are renting has been sold from under you.
You don't have to cringe in fear every year when the rent review comes up and they might put the rent up to the exorbitant figures they are reporting in the paper.
You don't have to {lots of other stuff that comes in the same bag as renting someone elses house and helping them pay off their mortgage}.

Here's some advice from an old person, even though old people are useless an don't know anything.
The best thing you can do to establish your independence in life is to own your own home. Didja hear that? OWN YOUR OWN HOME!!

Even if it drops in value for a few years, all that means is it will go up doubly fast after that, because the long term trend for houses is up. THAT"S UP!

I know it's a grind for the first five to ten years but that's just what it costs to get ahead in life. Because noone is going to buy a house for you.
mineral1
mineral1
WA
4564 posts
WA, 4564 posts
30 Jul 2011 4:05pm
pweedas said...

Yes Pweet, but you seem to miss the point.
Here's some advice from an old person, even though old people are useless an don't know anything.
The best thing you can do to establish your independence in life is to own your own home. Didja hear that? OWN YOUR OWN HOME!!Even if it drops in value for a few years, all that means is it will go up doubly fast after that, because the long term trend for houses is up. THAT"S UP!

I know it's a grind for the first five to ten years but that's just what it costs to get ahead in life. Because noone is going to buy a house for you.



And while your "owning your own home" the real estate price can go up down sideways, but as your not selling, BECAUSE YOUR OWNING YOUR HOME, you loose bugger all.
"OWN YOUR OWN HOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
echunda
echunda
VIC
765 posts
VIC, 765 posts
30 Jul 2011 6:10pm


Be like the US and Japan,

BUY IN THE HOUSING BUBBLE!!!!

Go on.......












Do it....................






Own your bit of Australia










Your a fool if you think owning your own home is 'the dream'
pweedas
pweedas
WA
4642 posts
WA, 4642 posts
30 Jul 2011 4:38pm
echunda said...



Your a fool if you think owning your own home is 'the dream'


Why?
Cassa
Cassa
WA
1305 posts
WA, 1305 posts
30 Jul 2011 6:03pm
mineral1 said...

pweedas said...

Yes Pweet, but you seem to miss the point.
Here's some advice from an old person, even though old people are useless an don't know anything.
The best thing you can do to establish your independence in life is to own your own home. Didja hear that? OWN YOUR OWN HOME!!Even if it drops in value for a few years, all that means is it will go up doubly fast after that, because the long term trend for houses is up. THAT"S UP!

I know it's a grind for the first five to ten years but that's just what it costs to get ahead in life. Because noone is going to buy a house for you.



And while your "owning your own home" the real estate price can go up down sideways, but as your not selling, BECAUSE YOUR OWNING YOUR HOME, you loose bugger all.
"OWN YOUR OWN HOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Pweeds, Mineral your both on the money , owning your own home IS THE ONLY WAY TO GO!!! Buying a house IS the only reason that I can now , not have to work full time , Exmouth here we come!!!!!!!
Fieldie
Fieldie
WA
361 posts
WA, 361 posts
30 Jul 2011 6:12pm
pweedas said...

echunda said...



Your a fool if you think owning your own home is 'the dream'


Why?



There's a whole lotta world to see out there pweedas!
Studys have shown those who rent & put the difference into investments of sorts are just as well off as those who buy homes.
With the time you & your wife spend struggling to pay the house off, then so suddenly it seems the kids are ready to leave, then you realise you need to downsize & head to the old diggers home... you could have been renting all over the world rather than being stuck in your local neighbourhood - horses for courses... I'm a buyer but can see the merit in renting!
pweedas
pweedas
WA
4642 posts
WA, 4642 posts
30 Jul 2011 6:32pm
kecksoff said...

pweedas said...

echunda said...



Your a fool if you think owning your own home is 'the dream'


Why?



There's a whole lotta world to see out there pweedas!
Studys have shown those who rent & put the difference into investments of sorts are just as well off as those who buy homes.
With the time you & your wife spend struggling to pay the house off, then so suddenly it seems the kids are ready to leave, then you realise you need to downsize & head to the old diggers home... you could have been renting all over the world rather than being stuck in your local neighbourhood - horses for courses... I'm a buyer but can see the merit in renting!


The studies also show that those who rent, invariably put their spare money NOT into investments but into holidays, new cars, 4WDs, windsurfers, (or for the not so intelligent, into kite gear ) or just plain piss it up against the wall. So when they get to 40 or 45 they still have nothing but a wife and 3 kids to support and put through school / uni and at the same time, try and pay the rent, or buy a house at the new inflated prices, such as now.

You don't need to buy a house first out of school but you do need to buy one by the time you are 25 or 30 at the latest.
Then if you want to start a business, buy an investment property, buy a yacht or anything else, the bank will like you much more if you have a million dollar house to put up as security.

If you're making a truckload of money up north or somewhere similar, then buy the house now and pay some of it off.
If you want to travel o/s then rent it out and let the renters pay your mortgage while you scratch your itches. That's what you're doing for them when you rent their house.
I know there's always more exciting things to do with your money than pay a mortgage but if you want to NOT have to work till you're 65 and then hope you can get a half decent house to rent at a half decent price then the sooner you buy your house, the better. All excuses are just forestalling the inevitable and making the job more difficult and unlikely to happen.
When you've finnished paying it off, you can live on a whole lot less than you can when you have to coff up $500 or more a week for rent.

{edit} geez i just read this through and I sound just like my father did 50 years ago.
adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
30 Jul 2011 6:33pm
Just watched a great docco on the G.F.C. called "Inside Job"

For anyone vaguely interested in the economy, or how the G.F.C. came about it's a good watch.

Nothing has been learnt by what happened in the U.S. and they are once again facing some major trouble in the weeks ahead - a huge social security payment is due in mid August and it doesn't look like they have the money to pay it.

Interesting times ahead.

decrepit
decrepit
WA
12874 posts
WA, 12874 posts
30 Jul 2011 6:38pm
First priority for me was to pay the mortgage off, once I'd done that I could afford to work half time, and did so as soon as my boss could organise it.
Got plenty of windsurfing in then!!!!!
Now I'm an old age pensioner, and sitting sweet.
Believe me, on a pension you don't want to be paying rent!
echunda
echunda
VIC
765 posts
VIC, 765 posts
30 Jul 2011 8:45pm
Why?

Cost of cash is at the lowest levels ever seen in financial history. House interest is the same as 1959

Housing inflation in Australia (cap cities) is slowly going down (just over the peak)

Per Capita Debt is (you guessed it) at record levels,

We have a well defined 2 speed economy.

Put this all together and you have the key ingredients for a financial bubble.

If you buy now and interest rates raise an additional 5% this will almost double your current monthly payment.

Remember that interest rates will rise. 1989's peak of 16% can happen if the global (Chinese) economy slows. The RBA will have no control over this.

Tell me old timer, which young person (or couple) who have the 'dream house' and the other items (new car, new quiver of sails, etc..) can find that additional moulla?

So, to me with a partner and one child, renting makes sense. I can live near the water (there would be no chance of this by buying) and have the freedom to either move or if he financial crash happens, move to a cheaper abode (rents will raise but not as much as mortgage).

But, I have to admit that I do have an investment property. Purchased at bargin basement price with no real estate agent's fingers in the pie and the gumment pay my interest and some expenses through neg gearing.

They tax your profit and reward your debt. Silly really.
echunda
echunda
VIC
765 posts
VIC, 765 posts
30 Jul 2011 8:49pm
pweedas said...

echunda said...



Your a fool if you think owning your own home is 'the dream'


Why?



I think everyone just missed my point.

DON'T BUY IN THE CURRENT BUBBLE
cisco
cisco
QLD
12365 posts
QLD, 12365 posts
30 Jul 2011 9:38pm
Think Real Estate.

It is like SEX. You should get as much of it as you possibly can while you are still young.
cisco
cisco
QLD
12365 posts
QLD, 12365 posts
30 Jul 2011 9:45pm
echunda said...
I think everyone just missed my point.

DON'T BUY IN THE CURRENT BUBBLE


What current bubble??? Do you mean the one that burst a few years ago??

Fieldie
Fieldie
WA
361 posts
WA, 361 posts
30 Jul 2011 8:13pm
echunda said...

pweedas said...

echunda said...



Your a fool if you think owning your own home is 'the dream'


Why?



I think everyone just missed my point.

DON'T BUY IN THE CURRENT BUBBLE


BIG BUBBLE here in WA at the mo due the mining boom. definately woldn't buy just yet, maybe a year - or see what happens in USA Europe etc. If you're in mortgage stress, maybe now the time to sell before it goes down further. (My opinions & feelings from observations ONLY - please do not regards as financial advice!)
I will try & track down link Aust National Uni paper on the outlook for world debt levels in next ten or fifteen year cycle...
Big eeeZeee
Big eeeZeee
NSW
1100 posts
NSW, 1100 posts
30 Jul 2011 10:15pm
Screw being a slave to a mortgage so I can say I own four walls and a roof. I;m going to live the ****ing dream! - The real dream that is
saltiest1
saltiest1
NSW
2570 posts
NSW, 2570 posts
30 Jul 2011 10:30pm
cisco said...

echunda said...
I think everyone just missed my point.

DON'T BUY IN THE CURRENT BUBBLE


What current bubble??? Do you mean the one that burst a few years ago??






looks like its still bursting cisco.
good time to buy in the usa soon. ive been watching for a while now.....
also, property is about timing. there is no way id be where i am today without taking the punts i have.
saltiest1
saltiest1
NSW
2570 posts
NSW, 2570 posts
30 Jul 2011 10:41pm
petermac33 said...

what does this mean to me?

the banks own more and more real estate,people are in debt big-time.

if rent is cheaper than paying your mortgage,then i would just walk away as house price is not going to go up.



www.huffpost.com/entry/big-oil-profits_n_913452




i dont understand how that post about oil compaies relates to this topic. anyway, the problem with the usa property market, is that ultimately it affects people here, even rentals here.
have you heard the expression " america sneezes and australia catches a cold"? well get ready for a flu.
the gfc was a gift wrapped pressie largely from the usa. property. people walked away from houses they could never afford, causing banks to have a shortfall, in a kinda ponzi scheme chaos way.
long story short, their economy influences ours. interest rates - property. rates rise - rents rise and so on.
id say buy, but at the right time.
Cassa
Cassa
WA
1305 posts
WA, 1305 posts
30 Jul 2011 8:44pm
echunda said...

Why?

Cost of cash is at the lowest levels ever seen in financial history. House interest is the same as 1959

Housing inflation in Australia (cap cities) is slowly going down (just over the peak)

Per Capita Debt is (you guessed it) at record levels,

We have a well defined 2 speed economy.

Put this all together and you have the key ingredients for a financial bubble.

If you buy now and interest rates raise an additional 5% this will almost double your current monthly payment.

Remember that interest rates will rise. 1989's peak of 16% can happen if the global (Chinese) economy slows. The RBA will have no control over this.

Tell me old timer, which young person (or couple) who have the 'dream house' and the other items (new car, new quiver of sails, etc..) can find that additional moulla?

So, to me with a partner and one child, renting makes sense. I can live near the water (there would be no chance of this by buying) and have the freedom to either move or if he financial crash happens, move to a cheaper abode (rents will raise but not as much as mortgage).

But, I have to admit that I do have an investment property. Purchased at bargin basement price with no real estate agent's fingers in the pie and the gumment pay my interest and some expenses through neg gearing.

They tax your profit and reward your debt. Silly really.


So, whats the plan for you and your family in 50 yrs ?,
I guess your in your 30's and have had lot's of life experience , and don't ever listen to thise that have .
The house I bought when I was 25 , for 36,00 is now worth 550,00, not including the rent .
the one i bought when I was 27, is now worth 680,000.


I just would like to know what the NEW plan these days is???
echunda
echunda
VIC
765 posts
VIC, 765 posts
30 Jul 2011 10:49pm
I'm not saying don't buy.


I'm saying don't buy now.

Do you understand why I'm saying this?
saltiest1
saltiest1
NSW
2570 posts
NSW, 2570 posts
30 Jul 2011 10:58pm
echunda said...

I'm not saying don't buy.


I'm saying don't buy now.

Do you understand why I'm saying this?



definately! be mad not to wait a bit longer, unless going sideways and can sell quick.
Fieldie
Fieldie
WA
361 posts
WA, 361 posts
30 Jul 2011 9:32pm
crawford.anu.edu.au

Sorry Guys, (I'm no academic) The introduction's a bit heavy, but it gets easier further into it...
Poida
Poida
WA
1922 posts
WA, 1922 posts
30 Jul 2011 10:59pm
^^^. Fiscal adjustment, it eventually had to happen, for USA, Europe.
I think the recommended 0% for Australia. Did I read it right?
Fieldie
Fieldie
WA
361 posts
WA, 361 posts
31 Jul 2011 4:48am
I think so Poida. The two scenarios for fiscal adjustment in this paper are penned over 10-15 years. Ten years more dramatic effect, fifteen a little better.
Australia is aligned with China & relatively debt free.
China biggest lender of currency to US.
China may become less patient on getting the money back & look for higher rate of return, esp if US loses its AAA credit rating, like it looks to soon.
China's demand for commodities will decrease as US contracts it's household diposable income. Economists are already seeing this & hoping the rate of contraction doesn't spark a recession in the US, which then impacts China (which then impacts Australia)
Our Govt needs to stop squandering the cash from this mining hyper-boom before it disappears!!!
What effect on investment (for your rent money that's left over)? Dunno, but I put all my super into an Aussie cash fund on Thursday just to be safe.
wodgina6722
wodgina6722
229 posts
229 posts
31 Jul 2011 8:40am
I'm locking my mortgage interest rate in tomorrow were looking at likely inflation.
kiteboy dave
kiteboy dave
QLD
6525 posts
QLD, 6525 posts
31 Jul 2011 10:42am
Seems to me it's only people who don't own a house who run around yelling "don't buy one."

Everyone who has a house and a reasonable income to mortgage ratio, meanwhile, just quietly pays it off and enjoys the benefits in the meantime.

As for pm33, mate our real estate system is TOTALLY different to the US. Nobody in Oz ever just walks away from a house/mortgage unless they are completely insane. There's no benefit to it. Stop believing everything you read and start trying to understand there's a difference between us and Seppoland.

elcoco
elcoco
WA
114 posts
WA, 114 posts
31 Jul 2011 9:25am
What is a reasonable income to mortgage ratio ??

The average house price in australia is 430 grand +/- !
saltiest1
saltiest1
NSW
2570 posts
NSW, 2570 posts
31 Jul 2011 11:32am
elcoco said...

What is a reasonable income to mortgage ratio ??

The average house price in australia is 430 grand +/- !


well the norm used to be a third of after tax income was dedicated to the mortgage. any higher and youd be in stress. now its a bit higher.
FlySurfer
FlySurfer
NSW
4460 posts
NSW, 4460 posts
31 Jul 2011 11:36am
pweedas said...

Yes Pweet, but you seem to miss the point.
You can pay rent for 20 years and it might even be a bit cheaper than paying a mortgage, but,... at the end of 20 years paying rent you have NOTHING! ZERO ! ZILCH! S.F.A. !!


Buddy I've got to call BS on this.
If you pay rent and smoke the rest of your money maybe, but if you pay rent keep the change in a high interest account and compound the interest you may be better off.
If you invest your money in other areas, gold, stocks, developing markets you could be much better off.

In Australia the tax code is designed to promote property ownership, and consequently there has been disproportional investment in this sector.

I rent, and I rent close to where I work... I try to make it close to where I work and the beach but that's not always possible... 5 minutes to work, how much is that saving me???


theDoctor
theDoctor
NSW
5786 posts
NSW, 5786 posts
31 Jul 2011 12:34pm

I rent my house out for fifty dollars less than my weekly mortgage payment.

for the extra fifty bucks a week, I think I'd rather own (pay off) a house
stamp
stamp
QLD
2797 posts
QLD, 2797 posts
31 Jul 2011 12:35pm
my old man pushed me into buying my first house when i was still an apprentice- it was the best thing i ever did. it was more of an outboard than an anchor, when i wanted to travel or run amok for a while i got tenants to pay it off and the capital still increased.

investing in stocks or term deposits sounds good but its too easy to liquidate little bits at a time when things go a bit tough. property is harder to break up and sell, its all or nothing, so it forces you to save when you are young.
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