kato said...

Macroscien said...
I like steel frame homes. Easy and quick to setup. Light an d strong. Cheap but last.

and as an ex chippy its horrible to work with ,cost more to insure and rusts instead Won,t burn but the house is a right off as the frame deforms under heat.
Great for commercial work though

No, they do burn, they are light gauge, zink or gal coated and like timber don't just spontaneously combust, there is always a trigger and once it's on it's way there's not much you can do to stop it, as an ex chippy myself agree with all your other points Kato.

An observation - as a pom, I have a lot of expat friends with good jobs (geologists, engineers, etc) for big firms in Perth, mostly in their early 30's. I'd say at least 70% of them are looking to leave in the next couple of years because although they'd love to stay, they're not willing to play in the Perth property market.

They're all looking at heading back to the UK, USA or Canada and putting down a big deposit, getting a small mortgage and living an easier life than trying to service a massive mortgage here.

We've also had friends from the UK come out (having got the visa) to sort out jobs and houses before bringing the family out.... and then decided that it's not worth it and stayed home.

Purely anecdotal observation with no meaningful stats, and I'm sure that for every one that leaves, another will arrive. But none of this lot are buying. Not one.

FlickySpinny said...
An observation - as a pom, I have a lot of expat friends with good jobs (geologists, engineers, etc) for big firms in Perth, mostly in their early 30's. I'd say at least 70% of them are looking to leave in the next couple of years because although they'd love to stay, they're not willing to play in the Perth property market.

They're all looking at heading back to the UK, USA or Canada and putting down a big deposit, getting a small mortgage and living an easier life than trying to service a massive mortgage here.

We've also had friends from the UK come out (having got the visa) to sort out jobs and houses before bringing the family out.... and then decided that it's not worth it and stayed home.

Purely anecdotal observation with no meaningful stats, and I'm sure that for every one that leaves, another will arrive. But none of this lot are buying. Not one.

Pretty sensible.

FlickySpinny said...
An observation - as a pom, I have a lot of expat friends with good jobs (geologists, engineers, etc) for big firms in Perth, mostly in their early 30's. I'd say at least 70% of them are looking to leave in the next couple of years because although they'd love to stay, they're not willing to play in the Perth property market.

They're all looking at heading back to the UK, USA or Canada and putting down a big deposit, getting a small mortgage and living an easier life than trying to service a massive mortgage here.

We've also had friends from the UK come out (having got the visa) to sort out jobs and houses before bringing the family out.... and then decided that it's not worth it and stayed home.

Purely anecdotal observation with no meaningful stats, and I'm sure that for every one that leaves, another will arrive. But none of this lot are buying. Not one.

I can totally understand this. Perth is not exactly a geographical location blessed with an abundance of natural beauty, amazing climate nor interesting and challenging geography. It is geographically very isolated, and faced with a choice of where to live, I can understand why your friends don't want to live here.

Well half my family lives in Australia so I have a bit of an idea what's going on.
I have read a lot of articles and the similarities are many.
Suit yourselves, let's see how it looks a year from now.

Hamsta said...
I can totally understand this. Perth is not exactly a geographical location blessed with an abundance of natural beauty, amazing climate nor interesting and challenging geography. It is geographically very isolated, and faced with a choice of where to live, I can understand why your friends don't want to live here.

Seabreeze discussion group - New York around 1850 : "Why would you want to move to California - it's geographically very isolated, climate is not what we are used to, and once the gold rush is over, it is certain to become a ghost town."

Seabreeze discussion group - Cape Colony around 1890 : "Why would you want to move to Johannesburg - it's far from civilisation and the ocean, in the middle of nowhere, and once the gold mining boom is over... "

Just thinking aloud...

with double population increase in the next few years the crash will never happen.

the only problem i see is all the ones who invested in wonky houses with no land in victoria ( including myself ) will wake up to the fact that when the mortgage pays off after 20-30 years, the new big mortgage will have to be taken to fix/rebuild or otherwise the asset will be worthless .
dammit, i should've moved to the double brick west when i was single.

dammit, i thought i would stop posting here after 69th post. i like that figure.

dmitri said...
with double population increase in the next few years the crash will never happen.

If this is indeed true there will obviously have to be a huge increase in housing construction or else, where would they all live and how would they be able to possibly afford to live in Australia? It's already nearing unaffordability.

I don't think consumer 'confidence' very little impact to the housing market.

Currently 30% of homes being sold in Australia are 'forced' sales. It's not in the industries interest to advertise foreclosures or the amount being sold under duress.

The only way the housing market is going to crash (and I mean decently, not these little dips we've seen over the last 5 years) is 2 factors:

1. Increase in intrest rates
2. Collapse of mining

Dirt is keeping this country going at the moment. The mines do employ a heap of people however iIf you think about the massive amount of business's that supply to the mines and the companies that supply to these companies and so forth, it's huge. If the mines start slowing down the indirect supply chain will be the hardest hit, forcing a heap of unemployment driving the price of housing down.

Same if interest rates rise, everyone who has debt will have to find extra $$. Those that can't will have to sell things first.

If you want to see how well we're going, watch the second hand market for 'toys'.
People will sell the second car, boat, bikes etc.. before the house. If you notice a dramatic increase in sales of 'toys', especially through auction houses, then you know theres a sector out there that's on it's knees.

An industry that has been quietly growing in Australia is the 'My budget' financial services and reposssetion industry. A freind had a furniture removal business running 2 trucks. Moved into repossetion and now has 5 trucks and 2 wharehouses, 1 with a holding yard for vehicles and watercraft. At the moment he's pushing back work. He's already working 6 - 7 days a week with little to no time off. People say it's a low down job however he's point of veiw is people get greedy with credit and enjoy a lifestyle they can't afford. He's there when they can't pay and the banks or whichever credit business needs to recoup at least some of their losses. There's none of the American agro that you see on TV. Most of the people are embarrased and don't want the street to know who you are. All his vehicles plain with no sign writing. He has a job to do and they have enough warning that they're coming.

Hamsta said...
I can totally understand this. Perth is not exactly a geographical location blessed with an abundance of natural beauty, amazing climate nor interesting and challenging geography. It is geographically very isolated, and faced with a choice of where to live, I can understand why your friends don't want to live here.

Not what I said mate. They want to live here but it's not worth it when they can lead a much easier life elsewhere.

FlickySpinny said...
...although they'd love to stay, they're not willing to play in the Perth property market.

One significant thing that is different is the lending practices, reportedly in the American housing markets unemployed people who had no hope of repaying loans were being advanced money.

still on the fence though.

Somethings got to give soon with rental yields at all time highs

Lets take that 9 - 10% direct contribution as being correct for the moment.



That is a massive contribtion straight away.


Now consider the indirect industry that support this activity. As a general rule from my uni days, 30% off all spend is supplied to indirects.. so 3% of their spend is to supply to the mines.

Now take into consideration how much they spend to keep the mines going and you can see that it's quite significant.

You can see where I'm going here.

If mining in Australia drops, the Big ones will move to another accomidating country and dig there. All the business's that were built on supplying that mine will suffer leading to my previous point.

If the U.S stockmarket were to crash say 50 percent,the Oz stockmarket would likely follow. Lots of folks would lose half their retirement funds.

With the U.S losing much of it's industry to Asia,the U.S stockmarket should not be peaking,the opposite should be true,a correction is ineviteable.

If they stop printing the notes we will have deflation,resulting in everything including property dropping in value.

With deflation the folks in debt will have less capacity to pay loans back.The folks with savings will be better off.....till hyperinflation makes them poor too.

LOW income earners in Perth are battling harder to find homes to rent, new research by Anglicare shows.

The median price of a rental property in Perth has jumped 16 per cent to $520 per week, up from $450 per week in 2012.

Anglicare's Rental Affordability Snapshot 2013, released today, shows only five per cent of Perth's rental market is affordable for people on the minimum wage.

Couples on the minimum wage with children can only afford 2.6 per cent of rental properties, down from 7.8 per cent last year.

The situation is even worse for people on benefits or pensions, who can access less than one per cent of the city's rentals.

For young people trying to move out of home, it's particularly tough, chief executive Ian Carter says.

''Whether they are studying, on a benefit or a minimum wage entry level job, the market is far beyond their price range,'' Mr Carter said.

kato said...

Macroscien said...
I like steel frame homes. Easy and quick to setup. Light an d strong. Cheap but last.

and as an ex chippy its horrible to work with ,cost more to insure and rusts instead Won,t burn but the house is a right off as the frame deforms under heat.
Great for commercial work though

The frame only deforms under heat if it was an inside job.

I don't think the housing market is a bubble. It seems very, very stable.
It is however extremely expensive and has reached saturation point; people are paying as much as they can afford for housing, and will continue to.