Bring this topic back in a year - I believe to most it will be -- oh yeah I remember that...
I predict the visual impact this time in 8-9 months will be gone.
I also predict the bulk of the simpler marine life will be back to pre-disaster levels within 2 or less years..
The major unknown here is the long term impact of the dispersant and what sort of half life it has in the higher order marine food chain (is it DDT like?).
The area has had long (very long) term background level of nature's oil leaks. The food chain includes microbes which have evolved to eat oil. The water temperatures are fairly high by ocean standards and fairly energetic (small choppy waves) so the breakdown will occur faster.
I heard the Chin(a?)ese are currently dealing with a marine oil leak from a ruptured pipe using the biological approach - likely smarter.
Do you remember those surreal picures after the Iraq army withdrawal from Kuwait ('91) - dozens of oil fields blown and burning alot into the gulf. From memory 18 months on the sea born pollution was gone.
I also predict the human food chain feeding on the clean-up in the US will extend its tenure for at least 20 billion USD's worth regardless if the costs end up being less.
They (US citizen)find it hard to kick most big business in the US particularly after the bastardisation of the s(t)ock exchange by Wall St leaving so many people as financial road kill...so BP is a duck shoot - cathartic too - BP have a massive cash flow and have had for decades so $20 billion in eschrew(SPELLING?) is relatively small change - but big in terms of short term liquid assets - 18 months from now a set-back but not much more.
Human nature being what it is - business as usual is already back up and running for ocean drilling and exploration - the cost of this type of industry are massive, the capital expenditure and infra-structure around oil exploration and production expecially at this scale is beyond stopping.
By way of comparison this area (Gulf of Mexico) was major before the North sea oil fields started in the mid-late seventies, and it is still massive as the North Sea oil fields wind down and get de-commissioned as the reservoirs are depleted.
Anyway - go microbes.... (and the relief wells!!).
(Some of the statements above on penalties to those responsible (!!!) are like tomorrow's fish and chip wrappers - Compare this to say the Union Carbide (American Company (with - at the time - lip service safety standards over-seas)) factory explosion in Bohpal in India and the human cost and tragedy associated (and still on-going some 30 years (??) later) - it all revolves around money and compensation - this is current but like the impact of hurricanes will rapidly fade).
