KenHo said...

I think I'm driving north on Wednesday, with wave boards and handkerchiefs.

Geez, i'd love to take some time off work and travel up as well. Is it likely we will get much wind here in Bri?

it will be windy but nothing spectacular. i'd be heading for yepoon...... it will be ****ing intense sailing there.

i checked out the auswave model on the bom, they have 15m waves so i guess the tidal surge will be big.

looks like cairns is now in the firing line. willis island obs will be interesting to watch as the cyclone will pass almost right over.

IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1913UTC 31 JANUARY 2011

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi was centred within 35 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal six south (13.6S)
longitude one hundred and fifty eight decimal four east (158.4E)
Recent movement : west at 22 knots
Maximum winds : 85 knots
Central pressure: 960 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 220 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 300 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 300 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 160 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 85 knots near the centre increasing to 100 knots by 1800 UTC01 February.

Winds above 64 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 110 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high to very high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 220 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 300 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 300 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 160 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.


Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 01 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 14.3 south 154.9 east
Central pressure 949 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 01 February: Within 95 nautical miles of 15.4 south 151.5 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.

looks like yasi is now starting her SW run.

www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

i'm starting to feel not so sure about cairns being the landfall anymore. with the latest movement on the satelites it's starting to look like townsville area again. only time will tell i guess. the next track map is out this arvo and it should give a better idea.
that said, ecmwf which is extremely fgood at predicting these things is saying cardwell still.

updated track map still saying cairns.

yeah, 15m, sorry, i wasn't inferring yeppoon getting that. it was the eye region of the cyclone getting 10-15m on the model predictions.

speaking of swell, this is just out from your place sausage.

^ not sure i follow ken,

isn't the windiest spot the eye wall....

Gestalt said...

^ not sure i follow ken,

isn't the windiest spot the eye wall....

Spot on Gestalt. Cloud cover shown on radar has no correlation to wind speed. Out of interest I read today that Yasi has an eye width of 30km which is massive compared to other (but just as powerful) systems.

I've experienced few close calls and near misses growing up in CQ, but if you are lucky enough to have the eye pass directly over they say it is the most surreal experience. One minute it is dark as night and screaming from the south at 100knots, then goes deadly still with bright sunlight beaming down through the clear sky above the eye, then it starts to blow but this time from the north. So everything that blew off or past you comes back again in the opposite direction to do even greater damage. Travelling at 30km and hour with an eye width of 30 km, someone will have an hour of calm inbetween the most terrifying 4 to 6 hours of their life.

Yeah, I knew you would pick up on that. I thought about that later after I posted and realised I was in error. I was thinking of high pressure systems, where the centre is calm, and the edge is windy.
I had not thought of that difference between highs and lows before. I wonder why that is, since they are both revolving, and the outside of a wheel has to move faster than the middle to complete a revolution in the same time.
Maybe it has something to do with the unique architecture of a cyclone, which may make it behave differently to a low. A faster revolving centre would have the effect of screwing everything tighter together, while the edges trail behind.
I'm too knackered to do the drive anyway, so I'm piking and staying at home.
I need to give you a call about slalom fins too.

Gestalt said...

^ not sure i follow ken,

isn't the windiest spot the eye wall....

re the youtube evening upgrade - i've never heard someone say so much in one breath

invisible tornados in the mix too?

Thanks for that excellent link Gesty.
I cam never find stuff like that.
I'm booked to fly to Ingham on the 10th for a few days work. I wonder if I'll need my snorkel to find it.
ABout the high being windy on the edge, I realised that a few years ago when I saw a thing about round-the-world sailors heading way down into the Southern Ocean to get to the edge of our highs to get across the Pacific and not get caught in the doldrums.
That's why they run into ice, like that bloke who had to be rescued a few years ago.
Highs down south = windy up north.

check out the willis island radar. the eye is about to pass. winds are currently gusting to 97knots, pressure is 957 plus it's now cat5 and massive

www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR413.loop.shtml#skip

Currently unavailable due to, it's been blown into smithereens !!!
I agree with the beef above about the pathetic weather reports.
28 and sunny does not really say much.
That was a superb run-down on clonics.

Gestalt said...

check out the willis island radar. the eye is about to pass. winds are currently gusting to 97knots, pressure is 957 plus it's now cat5 and massive

www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR413.loop.shtml#skip

KenHo said...

Yeah, but Cairns will be all built to W54 or thereabout.
At Bundaberg we had to build to W52, which is 52m/sec wind speed. I think Bris is more like W28, though Gestalt or the other construction guys here will know for sure. The engineering involved in W52 is substantial so the homes will not go down like they did in Darwin.
The bigger issue here will be the storm surge, more so than the wind. 7 meters will inundate all the island resorts and a lot of foreshore properties.
Inland towns like Atherton etc won't be built to the same cyclone rating though, and there are a lot of older homes there too.

JoLee said...

I'm so worried and praying for all my rellies in home town Cairns . Double the size of cyclone Tracy and she flattened Darwin.

Gestalt said...

things starting to ramp up now. local councils are putting up info on their websites re evacuations etc due to floods and storm surges in the areas on the bom track map.

Scary! As if you guys havent had enough **** to deal with lately! We have to be alert for bushfires in our area but much as I love a storm these cyclones would freak me out!