MatM14 said..
Many years ago during my uni days some of my uni mates and I used to crew on my dads yacht on Lake Macquarie. One Saturday afternoon as we are heading out to the start line for the race one of them was assessing the clouds building in the south and commented that it was looking a bit ominous. Me, being the most experienced sailor amongst us and having spent my life sailing, took a look at the approaching weather and made my assessment - "nothing I it", I say.
Approximately 15-20 minutes later the front rolled over us. As is the way with such things, we went from easily cruising along with a No1 headsail and full main to being knocked flat whilst we all attempted to hang on with one hand and get the sails down with the other. For an enclosed waterway it was pretty full on. When we got ourselves together we were down to a storm jib and 2 reefs.
To this day any time somebody makes a comment on a weather change on the way one of these mates is very happy to remind me that "there's nothing in it". Needless to say I keep my weather predictions to myself now.

Identify with that!! At one time I was racing a Blazer 23 at RMYC, big southerly approaching from behind. By amazing good fortune we were in front heading north goose winging. The back of the fleet started to get knocked down, sideways, sails flapping and lots of yelling much to our joy as it cemented our lead .... except that the southerly was of course catching up to us. My crew looking south reckoned we should really fast reduce sail but there was someone right behind us so I thought nah we can hang on. Its easy just keep the boat straight and dead downwind. When the southerly hit us it was briefly magic. I had a good calibrated boat speed indicator that passed 13kts, the boat actually hummed. Blazers had a planing hull and centreboard. I think we actually achieved liftout and planing. 13kts on 23ft boat is a buzz. Then boat was harder to keep straight. She slewed to port then a bigger slew to starboard, then a bigger slew the other way (deaths roll I believe!) and it got worse. (Such a wise decision not to spinnaker!). I was bracing myself with the tiller handle - which - in another big slew snapped. I went straight off the stern into the drink and the boat continued without me until it rounded up and the crew stopped it. Just deserts for over gunning it!!
Next time I see a big black southerly I will borrow your phrase MatM14 and say "there's nothing in it"