Good, the best looking weather girls are usually right. i think the SOI has dropped to near neutral so it could actually be ending

Wow the best news I've heard and delivered by a hot chick, can life get any better!

Seriously can't get any worse than this year surely.

Really I thought it was a cyclic thing? Are you certain it is random?

bring on the front's i'm over these piss weak seabreeze's

if it line's up with some fronts, easter may land with an epic swell and a bit of wind,
bring on some channel busting gate's into hell

It doesn't quite look like La Nina is over, see below. Both come from the Australian weather board. So someone is not quite telling the truth.

Below 0 = La Nina

Neptune said...

Forgive my ignorance please but... I am fairly new to oz (3 years) and even more new to kiting (first season) but what exactly is la Nina? And is there a reason it's got a Spanish name?

I have no evidence if either la nina or el nino make Perth any windier or not

For general info check these out

www.dummies.com/education/science/el-nio-and-la-nia-weathers-sibling-rivalry/

www.bom.gov.au/info/leaflets/nino-nina.pdf

Neptune said...

Forgive my ignorance please but... I am fairly new to oz (3 years) and even more new to kiting (first season) but what exactly is la Nina? And is there a reason it's got a Spanish name?

El Nino and La Nina are two different climate patterns that occur over the Pacific Ocean. They are Spanish because they were first described in Western South America and associated with local conditions there, but we now know that the two patterns have effects over the Pacific rim and beyond to the Indian Ocean too.

El Nino means "The Boy" and is associated with hot drier weather on the Eastern Seaboard of Australia

La Nina means "The Girl" and is associated with cooler wetter weather on the Eastern Seaboard.

El Nino is better for kitesurfers because we get hot dry conditions (ie. cool in the morning, clear hot day then Seabreezes building in the afternoon) but it can also mean drought.

La Nina results in more humid weather, more cloud cover, higher rainfall which results in less seabreeze and also flooding.


Read more about it here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o-Southern_Oscillation

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose early in the last fortnight before holding around +7 for the past week, remaining within values indicative of neutral ENSO conditions. The SOI has remained within neutral values since mid to late February. The latest (25 March) 30-day SOI value is +7.1.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

At a glance
ENSO is the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña conditions.

This climate influence is related to: El Niño La Niña The Australian Monsoon

What is it?
The term El Niño refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which leads to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific. This occurs every three to eight years and is associated with a weaker Walker Circulation (see diagram below) and drier conditions in eastern Australia. El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the term used to describe the oscillation between the El Niño phase and the La Niña, or opposite, phase.

In the eastern Pacific, the northward flowing Humbolt current brings cooler water from the Southern Ocean to the tropics. Furthermore, along the equator, strong east to southeasterly Trade winds cause the ocean currents in the eastern Pacific to draw water from the deeper ocean towards the surface, helping to keep the surface cool. However in the far western Pacific there is no cool current, and weaker Trades mean that this "upwelling" effect is reduced. Hence waters in the western equatorial Pacific are able to warm more effectively under the influence of the tropical sun. This means that under "normal" conditions the western tropical Pacific is 8 to 10°C warmer than the eastern tropical Pacific. While the ocean surface north and northeast of Australia is typically 28 to 30°C or warmer, near South America the Pacific Ocean is close to 20°C. This warmer area of ocean is a source for convection and is associated with cloudiness and rainfall.

However, during El Niño years, the trade winds weaken and the central and eastern tropical Pacific warms up. This change in ocean temperature sees a shift in cloudiness and rainfall from the western to the central tropical Pacific Ocean.





Animation demonstrating the ENSO cycle. Learn more about the Walker Circulation.



The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. The following figure demonstrates the typical fluctuations in SOI over a period of 11 years. Positive SOI values are shown in blue, with negative in orange. Sustained positive values are indicative of La Niña conditions, and sustained negative values indicative of El Niño conditions.





This graph shows the values of the SOI between 1994 and 2007



How does it affect Australia?
Each phase of the ENSO has a very different effect on the Australian climate. Events generally have an autumn to autumn pattern of evolution and decay. That is, they typically begin to develop during autumn, strengthen in winter/spring, then decay during summer and autumn of the following year. These effects are described in further detail on the following pages: El Niño and La Niña.

Further information and latest updates
The following links provide further information regarding the El Niño Southern Oscillation and its impact on the Australian Climate.

El Niño, La Niña and Australia's Climate (pdf) provides further detail on ENSO and its impact on Australia.

The Latest ENSO Wrap-Up provides the latest information on the state of ENSO and the likely effect this will have on Australia.

Australian Rainfall Patterns during El Niño and La Niña Events gives further case studies for the Australian region.

More links to books, journals and related websites

Here's the current data:

Graphs are good and can provide evidence of what ever it is your trying to prove.

However the hot chick that does the weather from channel 7 news said la Nina is gone, no further graphs are required.

As long as the gods of wind & sea follow the rules for the Coral Sea in August I'll be a happy camper.
Consistent broad reach wind - a shallow reef to follow for 2 days and a single semi-open ocean crossing day 3 - all planned around a minimal tidal influence.
Yeeeow - so stoked.
Mandurah > Perth downwind fundraiser is about to be announced.
Thats about the daily allowance we are going to have to cope with to be the first kiters ever to cross from Oz to NG.

Hey Scotty settlers beach is better spot on a low to mid tide for flat water I'm not a fan of hearsons definitely no self launch there. I always head to settlers or point samson if it's blowing from the east (winter) should start to get a few easterlies soon.
All that info came off the website I sent you.

austin said...

bring on the front's i'm over these piss weak seabreeze's

totally agree..

looking forward to some big airs and no lawnmowers!