So everyone has become instant weather experts by dialling into the different services whether it be Meteye or any of the commercial sites but at the end of the day all the commercial sites operate on the BOM feed generally and it is just a different algorthym that makes pretty pictures on the screens.
Weatherzone can give access to models other the BOM model and other pay for view services use the NOAA model.

Those of us that watch these things closely everyday usually get to know the weakness of the model, for instance the NOAA model for SW Pacific usually overestimates the size and intensity of low in the Coral sea while no model deals with katabatic breeze on the central QLD coast.

So here is an object lesson in looking at the models.

Early last week me, Cisco and Shaggy went to take the POGO north from Brisbane.

All BOM based models pointed to 20 -25 max from SE with isobars very evenly spaced over a good distance and nothing on any of the BOM charts to alarm you.

Forecast advised a ridge forming further north but again not a strong ridge.

Ten hours into the trip off Double Island Point, the reality was 20s building to 35-45 and max close to 50 from the ENE by 2100hrs and this continued for about the next 8 hours with pressure going slowly back into the ESE but not dropping into the even into the high 20s for another 18 hours.

So not a real smacking but very different from the forecast particularly as to direction which turned a nice run into a tight reach in very confused seas.

The real issue here is the models even allowing for the 40% warning.

So after talking to a few experts and thinking about things the lessons where these.

There is a general view that the resolution of the BOM marine models has been downgraded (btw aviation has priority)

The resolution was not sufficient to identify the steepness of the ridge forming where it did.

Our track steering 010M for most of the night was straight along the front of ridge so it never passed over or away from us for many hours.

But none of that explains why the true wind direction was as far round as 065M and by the sea state it had been round there for some time by the time before we got to Breaksea Spit.

Just thought I would get this out there as everyone gets so reliant on the pic of the screen without understanding the limitations of the thing drawing the pretty pic.
Or maybe I just got it wrong!

BTW hope we going sailing together again Cisco, it was pleasure.
Might have to tempt you with some southern island cruising!