I've been wondering about this for a while.
I was thinking some way of producing a forecast made up of every individual's opinion - and whether it would beat the BOM.
Would anyone be interested in playing a sort of "windy tips" game?
I'd score it and collect people's predictions via private message on this forum (because individual predictions would have to be closed)
All you'd have to do is guess - by Friday alvo at say 3pm - what the windstrength at Fawkner Beacon would be on Saturday at 10am, 1pm and 4pm?
I'll average the tips and publish them on Friday night.
The winner would be the person who got closest to the results on this page. There are no prizes other than glory.
www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60901/IDV60901.95872.shtml
Please let me know what you think. It's loosely based on a book called Wisdom of Crowds that states lots of non-experts can produce a better result than experts.
Ok - we have one person up for it...
If another five could put their hands up, then I'll run it this week..
so i guess this means you too made up then ![]()
ginger pom...my prediction is that the forecast for most of the week looks promising only to get shattered when it comes to weekend.
Sat: 17knt.....sunday: 12knts...with a frustrating peak to 24 knts sat night when sun is down.
Ok, the winning tips would have been
Saturday
10am 13 knots
1pm 8 knots
4pm 6 knots
Sunday
10am 18 knots
1pm 19 knots
4pm 19 knots
Not quite sure what the BOM said but if I'd known Sunday was going to be 19 then I would have got myself a pass...
Further up the bay @ Edithvale , I had a peak of 18 knots at around 1.30 but everything else was sub 15 knots for the entire day.
BOM data for South Channel Island on Sunday
last two numbers are knots and gusts - So while windy bee was making his own wind no doubt, there was enough to be reasonably powered up on a 6m...
09/11:30pm - - - - - N 30 33 16 18 - -
09/11:00pm - - - - - N 30 33 16 18 - -
09/10:30pm - - - - - N 32 35 17 19 - -
09/10:00pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/09:30pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/09:00pm - - - - - N 33 37 18 20 - -
09/08:30pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/08:00pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/07:30pm - - - - - N 33 39 18 21 - -
09/07:00pm - - - - - N 37 44 20 24 - -
09/06:30pm - - - - - N 35 44 19 24 - -
09/06:00pm - - - - - N 33 41 18 22 - -
09/05:30pm - - - - - N 37 44 20 24 - -
09/05:00pm - - - - - NNE 32 39 17 21 - -
09/04:30pm - - - - - NNE 39 46 21 25 - -
09/04:00pm - - - - - NNE 39 48 21 26 - -
09/03:30pm - - - - - NNE 37 44 20 24 - -
09/03:00pm - - - - - N 43 50 23 27 - -
09/02:30pm - - - - - N 41 48 22 26 - -
09/02:00pm - - - - - N 37 44 20 24 - -
09/01:30pm - - - - - N 35 44 19 24 - -
09/01:00pm - - - - - N 35 43 19 23 - -
09/12:30pm - - - - - N 37 43 20 23 - -
09/12:00pm - - - - - N 35 41 19 22 - -
09/11:30am - - - - - N 35 41 19 22 - -
Allright back to serious stuff!
Its an early call but here's my tips for this weekend
Saturday
10am 12 knots- N
1pm 20 knots- N
4pm 15 knots- N
Sunday
10am 15 knots-N
1pm 20 knots- NW
4pm 18 knots- WNW