IN GOOD...........

BLOCK BAD.........

CIRCLE THE ENERGY.........

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

BETTER NOW

ahhhhh

Whatever ya drinkin Cain - I want some!!!

'GOOSE ISLAND' 2006 SHIRAZ

have to admit the recent forcasts have gone to ** ..... LOL

HAIL said...

Can we believe them any more? 20-25 knots my ass!! they owe us a apology for wasting our precious sick, rdo, spare days! GGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRR thats all i have to say... HOWEVER saying that is was still bloody nice to be in the water and some good rides to be had.

I feel your pain Chris. I have had a couple of useless conversations with the weather forecasters over the years. I think they over forecast the wind range to meet the OHS requirements. Maybe I just need to get a life, a day at the beach is better than a day at work.

Will they get it right today, we will wait and see.

Check this out, very cool.
http://www.wimp.com/boardsports/

BOM are up front about over forecasting and yes they do it to be conservative. Through my work i go to the BOM Marine weather forecasting consultative committee which talk about the new forecasting web sites (look at the Vic pages and SA is doing the same soon).

Each meeting there is a discussion about the validation of the forecasts against black pole for the previous quarter. Each time they get about 95% reliability with the strength (with a 4.1 knot over estimation) and a little bit higher for direction (If i remember correctly). The times that they are not accurate they are way out, which means for the most part they are spot on but they lose accuracy when a seabreeze kicks in when it wasnt expected or vice versa or a series of cold front slip below a very stubborn high pressure system. Some of the reliability inaccuracy is also to do with local wind effects which may be too fine a resolution for their models & interpretation

I think they do a bloody good job (as long as you subject about 4 knots from each forecast)

After over 25 years of windsurfing ive come to realise that if i based my hopes of getting a sail purely around BOM well i probably would have slit my wrists. There are too many variables including local conditions that can change things and BOM have to be careful to not underpredict for the boating fraternity to whom it is much more critical that they dont get caught out in foul weather. Much unlike us windsurfers who usually want it to blow as hard as it can.

To get excited about a sail 5 to 7 days in advance and make plans about the great sail you are gonna have based on BOM is usually unrealistic except in instances where you can see the front coming is huge or the weather pattern is easy to read (ie summer seabreeze patterns).

Best thing to do is use the info from sites like BOM as a guide but have other hobbies as a back up plan ie surfing, paddleboarding or whatever gives you stoke!!

Anyway, thats my 5cents worth.

maris said...

talk to the oracle (Harry), watch bom (15+at HI NNW), work smart (where u been Paul?)

Bugger! Looked at the surf report (1 foot) and didnt bother.

Next time I will seek the wisdom of the Oracle..............or if you get a chance Maris text me and I'll be there to keep you and Harry company.

AUGUSTIS****EDUP bring on september, spring, the equinox, non westerly swells and bring my beach back at nene

maris said...

hey? i must've missed something
Far yesterday x off half mast, silky smooth and FUN.

By the time I arrived at Dribs it was glassy and Gareth was getting washed in - Still managed to have some fun waves in some small high tide sucky SUP waves though.

today hindmarsh island gusting to 19 knots......... dribbleton was a dribbling 4 knots. wat the hell! was dying for a decent sail with waves!! was extremely fustrating!

did u consult the oracle?
stormsurf
magicseaweed
capeducouedic
jabbajarjarbinks
bomobs
theoracle
put these words into the worldwide web and may the force be with you
this system will get you more wsurf action than deuce (watch for tricks).

Looks like bugger all wind this weekend!

hey haily i moved down here 5 yrs back due to many reasons, one being more wind in summer and more waves than the mid but theres much frustration when the wind racks off. if you move to wa have fun with the euro's and crowds. the most out sailing here at one time in my brief stint down the far se is 4 and that was with one of your local rippers mr pink bum.
nearly every standupper down here wishes they knew how to sail such is the nature of this joint
if you like sellicks wind, esperance water and middleton+ swell with the mid style reefs migrate south
if wednesdays forcast rings true i will be getting a very early season sou' easter on a couple of meters of swell over a reefy nene

HAIL said...

im keen on a big WA road trip in jan.

Make sure you come say hi to me!!
I am always keen for a beer and won't know anyone so familiar faces are always welcome!!