hehe,
actually it's for real, a few of the models are suggesting it now but they all seem to think it will shoot away SE 
might get to use that 85lt board, or be very dissapointed.
no one buy anything remotely small.
Big gap in isobars between the High and Low doesn't look promising.
But hey fingers crossed!
yeah seks anything is possible.
the model runs are suggestive, the low could form anywhere in that general area and go in any direction depending on the synoptic setup at the time. or not happen at all.
the other thing with the models is they may predict something on say the 28th but the real outcome could be a few day before or after that.
good news though is a lot of the models are sticking with it. my experience with the EC models from previous seasons is if it show something over a couple of runs it ends up being not too far from the mark.
classic example is the weather we just had. 10 days prior EC placed a low off fraser on the 17th. it ended up being around the 18th and wasn't a low as such but a trough but we got 20-25 knots out of it.
mind you this current low we're talking about looks certain to be a spinny thing.
the bom reckons it's on now also.
BOM tropical note says.
The tail end of La Niña 2011-12
There has been little change in ENSO status from last week, with most oceanic and atmospheric indicators approaching or already at neutral values. Cloudiness near the Date Line continues to be below average and easterly winds remain stronger than average over the western Pacific Ocean. Although these are characteristic of La Niña, the 2011-12 event is nearing its end.
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has strengthened slightly over the past week but remains neutral at +5.7 (17 March). The contributing atmospheric pressures were 0.1 hPa below normal at Tahiti and 1.2 hPa below normal at Darwin. The NINO3.4 index has experienced little change over the past five weeks and remains neutral at –0.4 °C.
Tropical cyclone Lua developed late last week off WA's Pilbara coast, making landfall over the weekend. There have now been eight named tropical cyclones across the Australian longitudes since November 2011.
See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up for further details, which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.
Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation in the western Pacific
A strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagated eastwards over the Maritime Continent during the last week, entering the far western Pacific on the weekend. This event is forecast to remain strong as it moves further eastwards into the Pacific over the coming week and it is not expected to return to Australian longitudes until at least mid-to-late April.
Over the past week, the monsoon trough strengthened over the Timor and Arafura Seas before migrating southwards over land. A deep low within the trough was responsible for monsoonal showers and storms that developed over the NT's western Top End and the Kimberley region. However, convection remained suppressed from the Solomon Islands to the Date Line, with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) shifting further west than normal.
With the MJO currently over the western Pacific Ocean and the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) over northern Australia, the risk for tropical cyclone formation and above average rainfall across northwestern Australia will be low to moderate, with the focus shifting towards the northeast. A tropical low just to the southeast of the Gulf of Carpentaria is expected to track southeast into central and (eventually) eastern Queensland over the next few days, bringing heavy rain across most of the region. The MJO is forecast to contribute to enhanced convection over the western Pacific in the next fortnight with moderate to high risk for topical cyclone formation and above average rainfall in the area.
Suppressed conditions of the NAM this week will lead to a decrease in precipitation across far northern Australia but with humidity levels remaining high in a westerly flow. Over the weekend a gusty and cool southeasterly change will propagate north across central Australia as the trough migrates towards the north coast, contracting showers and storms northwards.
maybe it will sit out there long enough for the big high shown to the west to move accross and does the business. ( I probably should have read what they predicted but eh!)
