Was reading this today. I've always wondered if the water stays cooler for longer into summer, does that mean better seabreezes?

www.heraldsun.com.au/nocookies?a=A.flavipes

vpar said..
not a good link for people who do not have a Herald Sun subscription...can't access

basically going to be a cooler spring.....

From what I understand the greater temperature difference between the ocean and the land, the greater the seabreeze effect. So if we get cooler sea water off the east coast this summer there should more seabreezes than what there would be otherwise.

jn1 said..
I don't think it will be very good season for windsurfing (at least in SA). Here is why:

http://inhabitat.com/three-category-4-hurricanes-developed-in-the-pacific-simultaneously-for-the-first-time-in-recorded-history/

TO many experts, to many variations, to many theories. Was watching Landline last weekend and their guest expert was forecasting wetter than average spring for central western Australia and South Australia, light trade winds, quite hurricane season, Californian drought breaking rains, they have now nick named it the Godzilla El Nino.

I've long given up relying on expert forecasts. I think I'll just play it by ear with my windsurfing kit on standby ready for action!

The prediction of strong sea breezes with the current El Nino is not happening in SE Qld.

The following is some info I've taken from KA72. I've used a 25kt 2 sec board speed as the threshold for a successful sailing day and taken the results from KA72 for each month for the Moreton Bay Mob sailing spot of Wellington Point. Wellington point works in the NE, E, SE direction.

Sailing days / month where recorded 2 sec board speed on KA72 exceeded 25kts
Location Wellington Point Qld

Year, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec, Comment
2011, 9, 12, 15, 15, 19, La Nina
2012, 9, 8, 16, 12, 16, Neutral
2013, 7, 17, 20, 18, 19, Neutral
2014, 12, 15, 19, 17, 12, Weak El Nino
2015, 2, 11, El Nino

The results for 2015 are so far below average

"Global cooling!"

Who said that? Get a rope and find a tree suitable for a hanging!

From what i can gather, with El Nino warming up the western pacific it sends cooler than normal water from eastern pacific (less evaporation on east coast), through the indo archipelago (less cyclones).
This in turn effects the Leewin current which is drawn down from the eastern Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) area.
The IOD is also in a positive phase which it seems draws cooler than average water down from indo but the anticlockwise oscillation of the Indian ocean will draw water from the Western IOD (around India) down and over to WA.
With cooler than average leewin currents we should see stronger localised seabreezes but this maybe cancelled out by the oscillation currents coming from west to east in the indian ocean.

Please correct me if i'm way off.