Hi all

3 mates of mine are bringing a Walker H28 from Melbourne to Hobart and planning to leave early next week

Any thoughts on the forecast and what route would you take

Regards Don

Hi Don,

out of interest, whats the name of the Walker H28?

Donk107 said..
Hi all

3 mates of mine are bringing a Walker H28 from Melbourne to Hobart and planning to leave early next week

Any thoughts on the forecast and what route would you take

Regards Don

Definitely looking like West coast leaving late Monday early Tuesday.
Nothing really from Tuesday to Friday.
Need plenty of diesel

Don
What I am seeing there is nothing on the west coast from early Wednesday through Thursday and by late Thursday a building northerly well into Friday.
East coast has strong southerly on Tuesday and Wednesday so you won't get past the corner those days.
Just got to take a bit of a beating early on Tuesday as you leave Melbourne but it gets better very quickly.

cheers Don, glad to see the spirit of Driftwood goes on.

Good luck with the crossing, it's been blowing brown shorts over the past few days, and more coming apparently.

SandS said..
maybe wait until next feb

Hi Sands

I think that they are setting off on Tuesday

Regards Don

Don
Significant change on the models this morning.
East coast is almost a dream run right up until very early Saturday when there is some SW stream but even that does not last long.
If they leave Tuesday am there is almost nothing in Banks Straits on Thursday and what follows is from the north.
Tell them to take extra diesel though.
Cheers

lydia said..
Don
Significant change on the models this morning.
East coast is almost a dream run right up until very early Saturday when there is some SW stream but even that does not last long.
If they leave Tuesday am there is almost nothing in Banks Straits on Thursday and what follows is from the north.
Tell them to take extra diesel though.
Cheers

Window just gets better!

Don
Not really, just better resolution as you get closer.
For free access go to the Access model and the GFS model on Weatherzone.com.au
There will be slight differences but are generally in agreement.
Meteye has pretty poor resolution generally.
I pay for access to other services.

Just checked out Windy which looks to be a pretty picture of the ECF or the GFS depending on which mode you choose so where the model differ is Friday morning on the upper east coast.

Actually, that is great example of how the models differ and in particular how the GFS model usually overreacts to lows in the south west Pacific.
The Access model is more reliable if there any lows about as the GFS usually exaggerates the effect.
ECM will be close to the access model.
I would go with that.

lydia said..
Don
Your mates getting away this morning?

Hi Lydia

They left at around 10am this morning and overnighting at Waratah Bay tonight

All went well today with the first sail of the boat since HG02 started working on her all those years ago

They are heading for Deal Island tomorrow

Regards Don

samsturdy said..

Donk107 said..

lydia said..
Don
Your mates getting away this morning?

Hi Lydia

They left at around 10am this morning and overnighting at Waratah Bay tonight

All went well today with the first sail of the boat since HG02 started working on her all those years ago

They are heading for Deal Island tomorrow

Regards Don

Don....I seem to remember HG changing the rig from ketch to sloop. I can't remember if he altered the mast position to compensate,
but it must be handling OK.

Hi Sam

I was just speaking to them on the Sat phone and at the moment they are not far from Deal Island and they said they motored for a lot of today

The boat is going well under sail and motor and they are happy with her

Re the mast position Hayden removed the mizzen and left the main mast in its original position but they haven't said that it has caused any steering drama's

Most of the sailing has been reaching and running so far and the next couple of days the wind looks to be on the nose so I don't know how much sailing they will be doing

They may even decide to have a look around Deal and Flinder's on the way as there is no real hurry to get back

I will keep updating this thread with their progress

Regards Don

lydia said..
Don
i did say take extra diesel
so am I on the money so far
pays to check
cheers

Hi Lydia

I will confirm they have the next time i am talking to them

How do you see the weather going in the next few days

On the sites i am looking at there is a few days of Southerly's and then the wind veers west and then north on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday

Regards Don

The thing I like about BOM is that they continually monitor the output of all the models and compare it to data coming in from their observation stations. In effect, they choose the best model for you in any given set of conditions. Plus, of course, you have direct access to the observation data itself.

Cheers

Bristol
(In the UK enjoying the heatwave!)

Bristolfashion said..
The thing I like about BOM is that they continually monitor the output of all the models and compare it to data coming in from their observation stations. In effect, they choose the best model for you in any given set of conditions. Plus, of course, you have direct access to the observation data itself.

Cheers

Bristol
(In the UK enjoying the heatwave!)

That is no longer the case.
Marine forecasts now usually produced without human intervention right down to the voice recordings.
Aviation has highest priority so all of the limited resources go there.
Marine if there is time except for Tasmania.
Remember BOM does hire science graduates anymore they hire maths graduates.

Donk107 said..

lydia said..
Don
i did say take extra diesel
so am I on the money so far
pays to check
cheers

Hi Lydia

I will confirm they have the next time i am talking to them

How do you see the weather going in the next few days

On the sites i am looking at there is a few days of Southerly's and then the wind veers west and then north on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday

Regards Don

Don
Still very good
Little bit of southerly late Friday night on the East Coast but by day break it drops right out again.
Good then until Tuesday night.