just out of winter...

not sure how your summer forecasting goes but...

winter is a really tough time to predict wind speed accurately, all depends on the timing of when the fronts actually pass through. Either side of the front (even when the front is passing), apart from wind direction, the winds could do anything! ...and thats the best winter forecast youll get

So is it usually a better prediction in the summer?

Mikedobee said...

Man, the wind prediction is crap.

It's always lying.

I woke up this morning at 5 to go to the beach cause they said the wind is around 17 knots, I went there and it wasn't even 8 knots. Really disappointing. I wasted 3 hours before work for nothing.

How can you actually tell when to go?

Why are they always exaggerating the wind speed?

Use the forecast as a guide but back it up with live wind observations. I wouldn't drive all the way to Rye on the forecast of a 25 knot northerly without checking out the wind readings on the bay to ensure that it was actually happening.

The BOM also does tend to over estimate wind strengths for marine forecasts - keeps people better prepared for the possibility.

lostinlondon said...

Mikedobee said...

Man, the wind prediction is crap.

It's always lying.

I woke up this morning at 5 to go to the beach cause they said the wind is around 17 knots, I went there and it wasn't even 8 knots. Really disappointing. I wasted 3 hours before work for nothing.

How can you actually tell when to go?

Why are they always exaggerating the wind speed?

Use the forecast as a guide but back it up with live wind observations. I wouldn't drive all the way to Rye on the forecast of a 25 knot northerly without checking out the wind readings on the bay to ensure that it was actually happening.

The BOM also does tend to over estimate wind strengths for marine forecasts - keeps people better prepared for the possibility.

totally agree with lostinlondon.
Mike dobee you say that "they said the wind is around 17 knots" if so that is not a prediction, but an observation. Where was the observation? you need to figure out what that means to your local spot. Most weather stations are in locations that get higher readings than your local beach.

not sure where your from in NSW but in Syd always check out bom for current observations (updated every 10mins) with wind speed, direction and gust speed

www.bom.gov.au/nsw/observations/sydney.shtml

I don't think the forecast has ever been right on the money around the northern beaches but Sunday was sick had an or sum session when that SE wind came through . The spot i kite most of the time is always less than the websites say i don't know if its winter only started kiting towards the end of last summer but have kited through winter and its been more pain than fun but good experience.

www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-20/court-case-over-italian-earthquake/2907778

Not only can you blame Laurie, you can sue him too

Hey

There is another option:

OPTION B: Ignore the predictions and head to a random beach to see if the wind is there or not and then wait all day to see if it comes in.

Let us know how that goes for you

junglist said...

Hey

There is another option:

OPTION B: Ignore the predictions and head to a random beach to see if the wind is there or not and then wait all day to see if it comes in.

Let us know how that goes for you

That actually sounds like what I do most days in summer. Head to the beach and wait, the seabreeze almost always turns up.

But like everyone else said, the forecast is only a guide. There is a met station in town here but it only updates twice a day. 'Live' readings for here come from Gingin Airport, it's not uncommon for that to be reading say 40+ degrees on any given day in summer, and popping up on the net as 'live' weather readings for Lancelin, but in fact it could be 28 degrees and a howling seabreeze over here. Not counting the fact that the anemometer in Lancelin is behind a large shed and pine tree so always under reads the south westerlies.

I find that in spring and autum the predictions are a bit iffy, but once the summer or winter patterns set in they are spot on and get better every year (more data to work with)

Have a look at this wee puppy

www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml

gives you a better idea of what the wind strength will be near your particular bit of coast line.

the drop down box for the zoom in views only works for the first 2 days

Beersy said...

lostinlondon said...

I can guarantee this won't be the first time it happens to you -

What about if it is the first time?

Also, you won't drive to Rye just off the forecast?

Where's your commitment!!!

Correction: LAST time - but I think everyone except you knew what I meant... ;-)

If Rye was packed with amazing women I think I would go down just on the basis of the forecast ;-)

It also helps if you live across the road from the beach, when you stand on the balcony you can see the flag on the surf club that's my wind meter

Looks like good wind for the beaches this weekend Thanks to the sacrifice my brother did last weekend popping his knee kiting in the surf .
Mike you should get a session in this weekend .ps has been a little gusty on the beaches lately

Use various weather web sites. Ok those are for my location. but you get the idea. check several. If they differ in forecast then don't trust it. If they are all the same thats a good start. Then get a live weather reading and take it from there.

After that its all about experience at your local. I add and subtract 5-10 knots from the forecast depending on the time of the year or the direction of the wind on the day. Very rarely am i supprised!.


www.windfinder.com/forecasts/wind_new_zealand03.htm?utm_source=www.windfinder.com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=redirect
www.swellmap.com/surfing/new-zealand/fitzroy-beach
www.buoyweather.com/wxnav6.jsp?region=NZ&program=nww3BW1&grb=nww3&latitude=-39.0&longitude=173.75&zone=12&units=e
www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=269