www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-bracing-for-severe-storms-20080710-3cze.html

There's nothing to that system, I reckon the bureau are out of their trees again. Laurie's arrows don't reflect anything of the like, and the low cell is still at 1013hPa. Still, if it follows through to the morning as per Laurie's prediction there could be one of those rare opportunities for a before work kite.

teabagg said...

its his tree the bureau are out on

Please explain?

You know Laurie makes his forecasts from several inputs don't you, not just BOM, and I believe some different modelling methods.

Of course, but he is predicting less than the bureau, that's my point.

I just couldn't piece together your sentence - his tree the bureau are out on? Or out of? Or is he out of his own tree?

Personally, I reckon Laurie is out of his tree!

There are possible 60 knot gusts south of Margaret River, and maybe 55 knots squalls in perth. Depends how much the cell "tightens" .. at the moment, looks like it's going to be pretty savage by the time it hits Adelaide/Melbourne.

Looks like 5m or 7m weather again. Smallest I have is 9m!

p.s. here's our favourite modelling system:



p.p.s. Clicking on the forecast on the graphs will take you too the synoptic chart...

I was watching it all day and finally decided to go for a drive to check it out down at Brighton (Perth) -

It hit around 4.30 or so along with the rain. I was fully lit on my 7m for about half an hour and then it backed off and started to fluke around. Though for that half an hour it was so nice to get some right handers on my natural tack.

I would say that perhaps only half the time the Northerly winds predicted in Perth actually eventuate.