The Resecession

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adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
18 May 2012 7:52pm
Just like I predicted a few months ago.

The mother of all recessions is finally taking a second bite - and there is little you can do about it, unless you act quickly.

Sell your house, sell your family sell your children and buy physical silver.

That's my tip - you can thank Adolpy later.
byf
byf
WA
517 posts
byf byf
WA, 517 posts
18 May 2012 7:55pm
Done. Thanks A
FormulaNova
FormulaNova
WA
15100 posts
WA, 15100 posts
18 May 2012 7:55pm
adolf said...

Just like I predicted a few months ago.

The mother of all recessions is finally taking a second bite - and there is little you can do about it, unless you act quickly.

Sell your house, sell your family sell your children and buy physical silver.

That's my tip - you can thank Adolpy later.


Come on! I don't mind the attempt to start a recession, but of my god, spell it correctly


adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
18 May 2012 8:00pm
FormulaNova said...

Come on! I don't mind the attempt to start a recession, but of my god, spell it correctly


I didn't have time to get my spell checker out, I bought a whole lot of BHP shares yesterday. I thought I was getting quite good at catching falling knives, but I was wrong.

I thought there would be one of those dead cat bounces - but it didn't happen.
Skid
Skid
QLD
1499 posts
QLD, 1499 posts
18 May 2012 10:04pm
FormulaNova said...

adolf said...

Just like I predicted a few months ago.

The mother of all recessions is finally taking a second bite - and there is little you can do about it, unless you act quickly.

Sell your house, sell your family sell your children and buy physical silver.

That's my tip - you can thank Adolpy later.


Come on! I don't mind the attempt to start a recession, but of oh my god, spell it correctly


Fixed that for you





Cassa
Cassa
WA
1305 posts
WA, 1305 posts
18 May 2012 8:05pm
Just what we need ..... MORE pessimism


Is there no posative thinkers out there?
SandS
SandS
VIC
5904 posts
VIC, 5904 posts
18 May 2012 10:11pm
Will be plenty of work in Greece as police , firemen , street cleaners and anti looting squads .

May not pay very well though!!!!!
adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
18 May 2012 8:18pm
In the flick of an eyelid, my dreams have evaporated.

How am I going to pay for all those Voice chairs that I bought in China? That f'ck off Massaratti that I saw on carsales.com.au for $40K is looking more and more like a distant dream.

I don't think I can cope driving a Nissan Stanza at 50. I may even have to pull my kids out of private schools!

I thought we were in a mining BOOM!
ockanui
ockanui
VIC
1321 posts
VIC, 1321 posts
18 May 2012 10:28pm
Just reading about the massive 32billion share slide/ selloff in the share gambling industry, for every seller a buyer looms to pounce, so is the reporting biased should it not be a massive buying spree by gambler/ investors. So is the cup half empty of half full, negativity and paranoia sells newspapers
adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
18 May 2012 8:39pm
ockanui said...

Just reading about the massive 32billion share slide/ selloff in the share gambling industry, for every seller a buyer looms to pounce, so is the reporting biased should it not be a massive buying spree by gambler/ investors. So is the cup half empty of half full, negativity and paranoia sells newspapers


I've been watching the economy for about 10 years and I don't think I'm any the wiser to understanding it. I'd like to think I've got wiser, but the reality is I've got no idea where we are heading.

My gut feeling is that property values in Australia is in big bubble and we will see a major correction in the next two years.
busterwa
busterwa
3782 posts
3782 posts
18 May 2012 8:42pm
Think what you want It not as bad as you think ... Don't sell anything
mineral1
mineral1
WA
4564 posts
WA, 4564 posts
18 May 2012 8:47pm
adolf said...

ockanui said...



.

My gut feeling is that property values in Australia is in big bubble and we will see a major correction in the next two years.

How you figure that?
People bidding to get a rent deal, which for a great number is getting out of reach for a rent property Housing industry not being encouraged to promote any new incentives to build, and industry cant build that fast, no matter how good they are. Don't believe you are on the same page with that prediction.
adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
18 May 2012 8:57pm
mineral1 said...

adolf said...

ockanui said...



.

My gut feeling is that property values in Australia is in big bubble and we will see a major correction in the next two years.

How you figure that?


When I bought my first property in 1996 there was a formula going around that your property would double in value every 7 years.

That did eventuate, until quite recently - in Melb Metro.

Obviously, that is in no way sustainable.

When I bought my first house for $180K I think my annual wage was around $28K now for someone the same age as me with the same skills it's probably around $40k, however my property that I bought back then is arguably worth over 1M - do the maths.

Will Robbinson - Danger Danger - it does not compute.
Buster fin
Buster fin
WA
2598 posts
WA, 2598 posts
18 May 2012 9:09pm
Unrelated to the current slide, I asked my portfolio manager to liquidate my shares last week to put my family in a house surrounded by garden, but he said it'll take a week or two to happen.... How much will I lose? I should have just put my coin in the bank. Or silver. Or platinum.
petermac33
petermac33
WA
6415 posts
WA, 6415 posts
18 May 2012 9:20pm
Watched real estate programme selling houses Australia last night. A inner well to do suburb of Sydney has went down 43 percent from it's peak.

Las Vegas is down around 70 percent.

Going to be a lot of empty property,with owners just walking away. Better to go bankrupt than pay huge interest on a house that's worth a fraction of what you took the loan for.

theDoctor
theDoctor
NSW
5786 posts
NSW, 5786 posts
18 May 2012 11:39pm

uncensored has been calling this with timeline accuracy for years, but hey its all conspiracy right..?
pierrec45
pierrec45
NSW
2005 posts
NSW, 2005 posts
18 May 2012 11:50pm
adolf said...
I thought we were in a mining BOOM!

Yeah but mining boom doesn't mean anyone makes instant money just by buying shares. Just means you have to follow the trends and judge of the right time to buy, just like any other market.

whoever said...
just go bankrupt

Ahh, another great advice..
japie
japie
NSW
7146 posts
NSW, 7146 posts
18 May 2012 11:51pm
I am picking up some cow **** and veggie seeds tomorrow.
Mark _australia
Mark _australia
WA
23646 posts
WA, 23646 posts
18 May 2012 9:59pm
If property values plummet I will be stoked.
People can't afford a house due to baby boomer greed and Govt policy helping them, plus mining boom, turning one of life's 3 essentials (shelter) into a money spinner.

An average house in Perth peaked at $500K not long ago, even a 3x1 in poor condition in a really sh!t suburb was $300K

That can't be sustained.

Those who complain the loudest are the ones in WA who bought at $250K and when their house was suddenly worth $500K a couple of years later they borrowed against it to buy 2 new 4WD's, a boat, and $40K of home entertainment gear to keep up with the Joneses. If they suddenly can't afford to keep it all - tough bikkies.


busterwa
busterwa
3782 posts
3782 posts
18 May 2012 10:03pm
I remember the people boasting about how there property had just gained $40.000 in value now are selling at a complete loss.
cisco
cisco
QLD
12365 posts
QLD, 12365 posts
19 May 2012 12:26am
Spare bedrooms in Gladstone are worth $200 to $300 per week.

If you have three of them it is a nice little earn for not much effort.

What?? You don't think real estate is a good investment???
Pugwash
Pugwash
WA
7733 posts
WA, 7733 posts
18 May 2012 11:37pm
adolf said...

My gut feeling is that property values in Australia is in big bubble and we will see a major correction in the next two years.


Your gut feeling Sure. Watch the ABC news regularly and you'll know Alan Kohler has been talking about this for a long time.

We live in a bubble, the work associated with the feasibilities and design and construct of the Pilbara iron ore will slow. The slowing of the iron ore may be offset by the growing gas boom... Who knows... Easy to guess... A nuclear free Japan is an interesting prospect - and still needs loads of energy.

The real interesting thing at the moment is the motivation behind comments from two big miners around expansion and the Australian investment climate... Looks like an interesting arm wrestle between government and industry...

adolf
adolf
1862 posts
1862 posts
18 May 2012 11:47pm
Pugwash said...

adolf said...

My gut feeling is that property values in Australia is in big bubble and we will see a major correction in the next two years.


Your gut feeling Sure. Watch the ABC news regularly and you'll know Alan Kohler has been talking about this for a long time.

We live in a bubble, the work associated with the feasibilities and design and construct of the Pilbara iron ore will slow. The slowing of the iron ore may be offset by the growing gas boom... Who knows... Easy to guess... A nuclear free Japan is an interesting prospect - and still needs loads of energy.

The real interesting thing at the moment is the motivation behind comments from two big miners around expansion and the Australian investment climate... Looks like an interesting arm wrestle between government and industry...





Do you reckon my BHP shares are worthless now?

It's going to be a rough day for me, to tell my kids that my hands are tied - I have no more money: I'm sorry, but I'm forced to send send you to a regular school to mix with logman's kids.
BulldogPup
BulldogPup
6657 posts
6657 posts
19 May 2012 1:18am
Damn - I'll have to sell my white arse to the rich old girls in Toorak , Peppy Grove , The Rocks & Robina a bit earlier than I envisioned
Marvin
Marvin
WA
725 posts
WA, 725 posts
19 May 2012 4:44am
adolf said...

mineral1 said...

adolf said...

ockanui said...



.

My gut feeling is that property values in Australia is in big bubble and we will see a major correction in the next two years.

How you figure that?


When I bought my first property in 1996 there was a formula going around that your property would double in value every 7 years.

That did eventuate, until quite recently - in Melb Metro.

Obviously, that is in no way sustainable.

When I bought my first house for $180K I think my annual wage was around $28K now for someone the same age as me with the same skills it's probably around $40k, however my property that I bought back then is arguably worth over 1M - do the maths.

Will Robbinson - Danger Danger - it does not compute.


Hmmm lets say property doubled in value every 10 years, that is 7 per cent nominal growth.

Pretty close to average of nominal Australian interest rates over the past 40 years?

As you could put your money in the bank and earn close to that return, the value of property had to rise at that rate, or a bit more, to induce developers to build new housing?

More recently, the wealth effect of declining interest rates plus the tax distortions favouring housing saw things get a bit out of whack. We are in for quite a long period of nominal sideways at best (that is, real price declines).
petermac33
petermac33
WA
6415 posts
WA, 6415 posts
19 May 2012 5:27am
Can see property prices continuing to drop in value by at least another 50 percent soon.

If the ptb create a deflationary GFC, then it's going to be more severe than an inflationary GFC.

Being a million dollars in debt in an inflationary GFC is actually not that bad. In a deflationary GFC, contracting of the money supply, money is much harder to come by, so paying back the mortgage would become near impossible.

Cash is king in a deflationary period.

And absolutely no debt.

As for silver/gold, have come to the conclusion the markets are rigged [plunge protection team],so while i believe the real value of silver is greater than $30 an ounce,believe they are going to pop this too.
Skid
Skid
QLD
1499 posts
QLD, 1499 posts
19 May 2012 9:40am
adolf said...

...I've been watching the economy for about 10 years and I don't think I'm any the wiser to understanding it. I'd like to think I've got wiser, but the reality is I've got no idea where we are heading.....


Something to keep in mind when trying to understand the markets, they are driven by two basic emotions... Fear and greed
Observe these at play in any group situation (people fleeing a burning building or trying to be first through the door on a boxing day sale) and you get the idea.
Sorry this may not help to pick the direction at any given point, but the direction will follow the emotion of the masses (and at times be helped by the pre-programed 'cut loss' automated sell orders)
FormulaNova
FormulaNova
WA
15100 posts
WA, 15100 posts
19 May 2012 9:25am
Skid said...

FormulaNova said...

adolf said...

Just like I predicted a few months ago.

The mother of all recessions is finally taking a second bite - and there is little you can do about it, unless you act quickly.

Sell your house, sell your family sell your children and buy physical silver.

That's my tip - you can thank Adolpy later.


Come on! I don't mind the attempt to start a recession, but of oh my god, spell it correctly


Fixed that for you



I'm going to blame my keyboard! Someone obviously stole the h key and replaced it with the f and then chaged it back...

edit: and now they stole the n key!
Skid
Skid
QLD
1499 posts
QLD, 1499 posts
19 May 2012 11:36am
^^thatsoksomedaysmyspacebardoesntworkatall
Basecurve
Basecurve
WA
196 posts
WA, 196 posts
19 May 2012 2:56pm
petermac33 said...

Can see property prices continuing to drop in value by at least another 50 percent soon.


As for silver/gold, have come to the conclusion the markets are rigged [plunge protection team],so while i believe the real value of silver is greater than $30 an ounce,believe they are going to pop this too.


Agreed. We have the highest ratio of household income to debt in the world which now runs at a whopping 160% up from 50% 20 years ago.
Totally not sustainable.Hard to put a time line on that though (without crystal ball).
As for silver... a seasoned trader told me years ago never to make any conclusion about its price/ direction without having tomorrows newspaper today...and even then be careful.Its a beast of a metal.Makes gold trading look like a day at the beach
Sailhack
Sailhack
VIC
5000 posts
VIC, 5000 posts
19 May 2012 7:03pm
adolf said...

It's going to be a rough day for me, to tell my kids that my hands are tied - I have no more money: I'm sorry, but I'm forced to send send you to a regular school to mix with logman's kids.


Don't worry adolf...I'm sure logman home schools.
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