adolf said...mineral1 said...adolf said...ockanui said...
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My gut feeling is that property values in Australia is in big bubble and we will see a major correction in the next two years.
How you figure that?
When I bought my first property in 1996 there was a formula going around that your property would double in value every 7 years.
That did eventuate, until quite recently - in Melb Metro.
Obviously, that is in no way sustainable.
When I bought my first house for $180K I think my annual wage was around $28K now for someone the same age as me with the same skills it's probably around $40k, however my property that I bought back then is arguably worth over 1M - do the maths.
Will Robbinson - Danger Danger - it does not compute.
Hmmm lets say property doubled in value every 10 years, that is 7 per cent nominal growth.
Pretty close to average of nominal Australian interest rates over the past 40 years?
As you could put your money in the bank and earn close to that return, the value of property had to rise at that rate, or a bit more, to induce developers to build new housing?
More recently, the wealth effect of declining interest rates plus the tax distortions favouring housing saw things get a bit out of whack. We are in for quite a long period of nominal sideways at best (that is, real price declines).