Seabreeze wx Vs BOM wx

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iRideWainman
iRideWainman
VIC
219 posts
VIC, 219 posts
20 Sep 2011 12:39pm
Not sure if this has been discussed before, but does Seabreeze know something the bureau doesn't?

There seems to be a consistent discrepancy between the two sources, presumably Seabreeze gets it's weather from BOM, so in principal there should be no difference!

Clearly this is not the case, for instance this Thursday 22/9, one could consider taking the afternoon off for a kite, but if you were to check BOM's forecast, you probably would consider otherwise...





Bigwavedave
Bigwavedave
QLD
2057 posts
QLD, 2057 posts
20 Sep 2011 8:18pm
You kite in actual wind...not tomorrow's wind.

No-one gets the forecast right.

BoM has people with degrees and access to giant software programs and they still get it wrong mostly.

Seabreeze is a computer in Laurie's spare bedroom with some shareware computer models on it on 5 1/4" floppy discs.

Go down the beach and stick your head out of the car window. If your hat blows off you go kiting.
pooman
pooman
WA
293 posts
WA, 293 posts
21 Sep 2011 11:19am
I could be having a moment of retardness so correct me if I'm wrong.....but it looks to me that both say the wind is predicted to be approx 20 knots and northerly in both charts.

GreenPat
GreenPat
QLD
4103 posts
QLD, 4103 posts
21 Sep 2011 2:17pm
Bigwavedave said...


Seabreeze is a computer in Laurie's spare bedroom with some shareware computer models on it on 5 1/4" floppy discs.


nebbian
nebbian
WA
6277 posts
WA, 6277 posts
21 Sep 2011 2:20pm
For me, both involve a fair bit of internal "munging" to get a good idea of whether the wind will happen...

For example, if there's a big spike northerly that then swings southerly, I know it's not going to be nearly as big as the graphs show. So just by looking at the graph above I've got a fair idea that Thursday arvo won't be nearly as good as the raw graphs suggest.

But if there's a good sized pulse over a couple of days then you know it's going to be pretty close to the mark.

Of course it all depends on your local spots, local conditions, in the end you're the only one who knows how to munge your graphs to get some meaningful forecasts
cisco
cisco
QLD
12365 posts
QLD, 12365 posts
21 Sep 2011 5:16pm
I think a better idea can be had from studying these and then going to current observations.

Of course you can't get any better observation than sticking your head out the window when you are at the playground.

www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
GalahOnTheBay
GalahOnTheBay
NSW
4188 posts
NSW, 4188 posts
21 Sep 2011 8:57pm
nebbian said...

"munging"


That is a technical term that I am not familiar with...
faimanu
faimanu
QLD
10 posts
QLD, 10 posts
23 Sep 2011 10:01am
Bigwavedave said...

You kite in actual wind...not tomorrow's wind.

No-one gets the forecast right.

BoM has people with degrees and access to giant software programs and they still get it wrong mostly.

Seabreeze is a computer in Laurie's spare bedroom with some shareware computer models on it on 5 1/4" floppy discs.

Go down the beach and stick your head out of the car window. If your hat blows off you go kiting.


and there's the weekend - no one would sit a weekend updating forecasts on a computer when they can be out. Weekend weather does not change...until Monday. The guys at BoM are geeks anyway, and they get paid too.
GalahOnTheBay
GalahOnTheBay
NSW
4188 posts
NSW, 4188 posts
23 Sep 2011 8:08pm
Seabreeze prediction was bang on today in Sydney.

I watched the southerly roll across the harbour at 4pm right as predicted.

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