Italian scientists convicted for failing....

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Poodle
Poodle
WA
868 posts
WA, 868 posts
23 Oct 2012 8:25am
I can see this will really help society...
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Six scientists and a former government official have been sentenced to six years in jail for multiple manslaughter for giving the wrong advice about an earthquake which struck the Italian city of L'Aquila in 2009, killing over 300 people.

The seven, all members of a body called the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks, were accused of negligence and malpractice in evaluating the danger and keeping the central city informed of the risks.

They have also been ordered to pay more than 9 million euros ($11.3 million) in damages to survivors in L'Aquila.




L'Aquila was reduced to rubble by the 6.3 magnitude quake on April 6, 2009, with 309 people killed and over 1,000 injured.

The case has drawn condemnation from international bodies including the American Geophysical Union, which said the risk of litigation may deter scientists from advising governments or even working in seismology and seismic risk assessments.

"The issue here is about miscommunication of science, and we should not be putting responsible scientists who gave measured, scientifically accurate information in prison," Richard Walters of Oxford University's Department of Earth Sciences said.

"This sets a very dangerous precedent and I fear it will discourage other scientists from offering their advice on natural hazards and trying to help society in this way."

The scientists - Franco Barberi, Enzo Boschi, Giulio Selvaggi, Gian Michele Calvi, Claudio Eva and Mauro Dolce as well as Bernardo De Bernardis - a senior official in the Civil Protection Authority - were convicted of criminal manslaughter and causing criminal injury.

Under the Italian justice system, the seven remain free until they have exhausted two chances to appeal the verdict.

At the heart of the case was the question of whether the government-appointed experts gave an overly reassuring picture of the risk facing the town, which contained many ancient and fragile buildings and which had already been partially destroyed three times by earthquakes over the centuries.

The case focused in particular on a series of low-level tremors that hit the region in the months preceding the earthquake and which prosecutors said should have warned experts not to underestimate the risk of a major shock.

Eva's lawyer Alfredo Biondi said the decision was "wrong in both fact and law" but the verdict, delivered in a tiny improvised court room in an industrial zone outside the still-wrecked city centre, was welcomed by relatives of the victims.

"This is not thirst for revenge, it is just that our sister is not coming back," Claudia Carosi said.

More than three years later, much of the once-beautiful medieval city is still in ruins and thousands of people have been unable to return to their homes.

Defence lawyers said earthquakes could not be predicted and even if they could, nothing could be done to prevent them.

"If an event cannot be foreseen and, more to the point, cannot be avoided, it is hard to understand how there can be any suggestion of a failure to predict the risk," defence lawyer Franco Coppi said before the verdict was delivered.

'Imprecise' warning
Prosecutors, who had only sought a four-year sentence, said they did not expect scientists to provide a precise forecast.

But they argued the commission had given "incomplete, imprecise and contradictory" information on the danger after a meeting on March 31, 2009, a few days before the earthquake.

The case is part of a wider controversy over the disaster in L'Aquila, which has been at the centre of a series of bitter rows over Italy's disaster preparedness.

Central Italy is continuously shaken by low level tremors, very few of which precede bigger earthquakes and they are generally marked by no more than a brief statement from civil protection authorities.

Key to the dispute is the kind of cautious language, hedged by caveats and reserves which scientists typically use in predicting highly uncertain events, but which can be of limited use as a guideline for the general public.

According to scientific opinion cited by prosecutors, the dozens of lower level tremors seen before the quake were typical of the kind of preliminary seismic activity seen before major earthquakes such as the one that struck on April 6.

Instead of highlighting the danger, they said the experts had made statements playing down the threat of a repeat of the earthquakes which wrecked the town in 1349, 1461 and 1703, saying the smaller shocks were a "normal geological phenomenon".

Italy is among the most earthquake-prone countries in Europe and has been struck repeatedly by lethal shocks, most recently in May 2012, when 16 people were killed and hundreds injured by a 5.8 tremor in the Emilia Romagna region.

www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-23/italian-scientists-convicted-over-earthquake-warning/4328046



Dawn Patrol
Dawn Patrol
WA
1991 posts
WA, 1991 posts
23 Oct 2012 10:35am
Seems a bit rough considering earthquake 'prediction' down to a location/strenght/time is not an exact science and has a very low success rate. So low that it is quite likely most predictions are just flukes.

nebbian
nebbian
WA
6277 posts
WA, 6277 posts
23 Oct 2012 10:43am
It's interesting isn't it.

Especially when you consider that the authorities clamped down hard on the one italian scientist that DID warn of that quake:

observers.france24.com/en/20090407-man-who-predicted-quake-conman-or-visionary-italy-laquila-giuliani

At the time I remember the news reporting that he was locked up.

So you get locked up if you predict the quake, and you get locked up if you don't predict it.

Sucks to be a scientist in Italy right now... Galileo must be rolling in his grave.
sausage
sausage
QLD
4874 posts
QLD, 4874 posts
23 Oct 2012 1:22pm
Sounds similar to the previous Qld government trying to blame the Brisbane floods on the Wivenhoe Dam engineers.
PoleTroll
PoleTroll
36 posts
36 posts
23 Oct 2012 11:32am
It was the Catholics using underground detonators to set up members of the iluminati.
True story
Ted the Kiwi
Ted the Kiwi
NSW
14256 posts
NSW, 14256 posts
23 Oct 2012 2:54pm
sausage said...
Sounds similar to the previous Qld government trying to blame the Brisbane floods on the Wivenhoe Dam engineers.


This decision could and probably will have far reaching consequences....far in excess of the Brisbane floods. I think that the bigger issue still being lost in this debate is that the focus has been on the forecasting and the uncertainty yet we have knowledge that is being ignored continually - namely that we know how to build buildings that will not collapse - so why have the engineers who built the buildings or the govt officials who enforce the building code not been held to account yet? Why do we continue to build stupid buildings in stupid locations across Australia?

It is very tricky trying to communicate the subtle differences and uncertainty of risks of this magnitude, especially when there is a range of scientific opinions out there, to the general public. This is sadly one big example of how not to it would seem. The issue is now that scientists may now fear having their statements misunderstood so will be reluctant to share their knowledge.
pweedas
pweedas
WA
4642 posts
WA, 4642 posts
23 Oct 2012 11:57am
It's so typical of most things in todays society where everything is someone's fault.
And more specifically, someone else's fault.
So they've got to be sued.
The only winners are the insurance companies because councils have to be insured up to the hilt to cater for when some idiot trips over on the local oval and hurts their foot,... "Sombody's gotta be sued!"
For when some idiot dives into shallow water after being told not to,.. and breaks their neck,.. "Sombody's gotta be sued!!"
For when anybody does the most obvoius thing which can result in injury,. and it does,.. "Somebody's gotta be sued!"

The strange thing is, these matters always go before a court and you would think the court would have the intelligence to throw these things out in quick order but they don't. They usually have to be dragged right through to the top before finally someone might see it for what it is, and throw it out.
By then the damage is done. Hundreds of thousands have been spent in lawyers fees and there is no hope of getting any of it back because the person who took it to court usually has nothing, so if you are awarded costs you still get nothing.
landyacht
landyacht
WA
5921 posts
WA, 5921 posts
23 Oct 2012 9:36pm
sausage said...
Sounds similar to the previous Qld government trying to blame the Brisbane floods on the Wivenhoe Dam engineers.


but at least the scientists didnt do all the dodgy building in the town in italy, or the dodgy repairs, dodgy maintainence,(or lack of)
Mark _australia
Mark _australia
WA
23652 posts
WA, 23652 posts
23 Oct 2012 10:20pm
Gawd it was obviously caused by HAARP.

Where are you PM33 et al?


In seriousness though....
I was just about to say the case must be based upon the fact that lots of other scientists (ie: the "reasonable man" test) had predicted the quake otherwise they'd have surely not prosecuted these fellas.
Then I saw Nebb's post. Hmmm - something stinks.
Mr float
Mr float
NSW
3452 posts
NSW, 3452 posts
24 Oct 2012 12:30pm
I'm gonna jail the mongrel who keeps failing to forecast that every pram pusher from every sub branch of the Newcastle nursing mothers association will invade my cafe without notice on the very day that i decide that I can reduce one staff member from our tues mornings because a 2 mth trend shows they are not needed .

oh and Jailing earthquake forecast scientists ,rediculous .Why don't they jail god .it was his/hers/its fault ultimately wasn't it?
Carantoc
Carantoc
WA
7269 posts
WA, 7269 posts
24 Oct 2012 10:31am
But, being Italian they probably spent 7 years on a government salary taking siestas and drinking wine. They were probably also members of the wrong Mafioso family and drove those ridulous Fiat 126s or even more stupid mopeds with half-arse helmets on.

They also probably claimed in court that predicting an earthquake is like making love to a beautiful woman. First you have to worship the ground she walks on, then you have to sense the deep rumbling from within ......

But the fine is ridiculous - $11.3 million is more than the entire EU GDP for the year

(no offense meant to any Italians - well atleast not the ones who can read)
NotWal
NotWal
QLD
7436 posts
QLD, 7436 posts
24 Oct 2012 2:17pm
Mr float said...
....Why don't they jail god .it was his/hers/its fault ultimately wasn't it?


Macroscien
Macroscien
QLD
6809 posts
QLD, 6809 posts
24 Oct 2012 2:45pm
One thing is long time prediction of event that is going to happen. That MUST happen in nearest future.
Ie volcano blowing in the middle of the Auckland City,
next disaster flooding in Queensland,
Australia running out of the iron ore and Arabs of oil.

Quite other is 24 hours warning before such thing will happen.

So called "Italian scientist" are actually governments employees that try to implement some conclusions from scientific rules and bureaucratic CODE OF PRACTISE/RULES.

To simplify , no bureaucratic scientist is punished for not knowing the exact science - but for not adhering to internal organisation rules.
For example no medical doctor is punished for falling to heal you, but for breaking internal rules inside medical society at the time.

On the funny side, imagine that like our Amstrong cyclist is stripped of his medals retrospectively next could be Albert Einstein excavated of the grave and taken all the Nobel prices back after somebody come in next 200 years comes to improve on his theory.
Poodle
Poodle
WA
868 posts
WA, 868 posts
24 Oct 2012 2:38pm
Macroscien said...

On the funny side, imagine that like our Amstrong cyclist is stripped of his medals retrospectively next could be Albert Einstein excavated of the grave and taken all the Nobel prices back after somebody come in next 200 years comes to improve on his theory.



You trying to tell me that Einstein was on the juice? I suspected he was using drugs. But not Newton, he was "clean"!
landyacht
landyacht
WA
5921 posts
WA, 5921 posts
24 Oct 2012 8:28pm
Mr float said...
I'm gonna jail the mongrel who keeps failing to forecast that every pram pusher from every sub branch of the Newcastle nursing mothers association will invade my cafe without notice on the very day that i decide that I can reduce one staff member from our tues mornings because a 2 mth trend shows they are not needed .

oh and Jailing earthquake forecast scientists ,rediculous .Why don't they jail god .it was his/hers/its fault ultimately wasn't it?


your problem is that they have been known as Australian Breastfeeding Association for the last 10 years. how about updating your sticker on the window of your cafe. be assured that the ladies and infants do appreciate your support, and they tell thier friends
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