Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week day 2 weather report

10:38 PM Fri 12 Aug 2011 GMT

'Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week day 2 weather report' Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week

Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week day two weather report: Nil Warnings current. Synoptic Discussion: A strengthening ridge of high pressure is expected across the region for today's racing.

Latest analysis

Observations: At 0600hr Hamilton Island was reporting the following conditions: Wind 180deg at 11kn gusting to 13kn, Temp 17C, Pressure 1019hPa).

Forecast Winds for Middle of Pioneer Bay (Read Discussion below)

1000:MD150 DR(170-130) MS14 SR10-18kn

1200:MD140 DR(160-120) MS15 SR11-20kn, 2-3kn stronger offshore?

1400:MD130 DR(160-110) MS17 SR13-22kn, 2-3kn stronger offshore?

1600:MD130 DR(150-110) MS17 SR14-22kn, 2-3kn stronger offshore?

1800:MD120 DR(140-100) MS16 SR12-21kn, 2-3kn stronger offshore?

Whitsunday Passage and Molle Channel: Wind speeds two to three knots stronger at times than those above, but more gusty at times, particularly around some headlands and in more constrained locations. Wind direction could be 10-20deg more left than above at times.

Key to wind forecast: First column is mean wind direction in deg Magnetic (MD). It is the 10min average (mean) value at a height of 10m above the water leading up to the hour quoted. The second column is the directional range (DR) of the wind direction in deg Mag. This takes into account the natural oscillation of the wind and is a function of the atmospheric stability, etc. The third column is the mean speed (MS) in knots (kn) and is the average 10min value leading up to the hour quoted at a height of 10m above the water. The last column is the wind speed range (SR) in knots and is the lowest wind speed to highest wind speed in the 10min leading up to forecast hour.

Discussion: The ridge of high pressure currently over the race area is expected to strengthen today. As such the surface winds should increase during the afternoon.

So again the big questions today are (hopefully answered in forecast above??):

1. How far left will the surface direction get?
2. How quickly will the direction turn left?
3. How strong will the winds be?

In this situation we normally experience stronger winds offshore and in the Whitsunday Passage and Molle Channel.

The sea state should also be higher further offshore than closer to the coast.
Note: Wind will be lighter in the lee of any landmass and stronger and more gusty between islands (in channels and passages) and around some headlands.

Natural wind oscillations today around 15 to 25 deg away from effects of topography, tending 30 to 50 deg closer to the effects of any land mass.

Other possibilities: 40% chance that the wind speeds do not build to the forecast strength during your race period. In this case speeds would stay in the 10-14kn average range??

30% chance that wind drops out this morning and a 8-12kn E-NE sea breeze develops late morning/early afternoon??
Weather: Dry. Maybe some bushfire smoke around at times? Maximum land temperature at Airlie Beach: about 23 degrees.

Wind Waves: 0.5 to 1.5metres, less in lee of land, more when wind wave opposes tidal current and further offshore depending on fetch.
(Wave heights quoted are significant wave heights).

Tide at Shute Harbour: High of 2.73m at 1025hr and Low of 0.43m at 1609hr.

Tidal Stream: A good ebb this afternoon. Be very careful particularly in the passages, channels, close to islands, etc.
Remember: Tide floods to the south and ebbs to the north in the Whitsundays.

Sea Temperature: 20-21 degrees.

Outlook Sunday: Similar.

Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week website

by Ken Batt

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Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week day 2 weather report

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